The Prime Minister Bets Big on the 2025 Budget

François Bayrou seems determined to hasten his own political shipwreck. Just appointed, he unveils heavy artillery: a rapid-fire 49.3 to impose a 2025 budget already criticized from all sides. Amidst the insurgency of oppositions, sharp criticisms, and an abyssal deficit, the Prime Minister is stubbornly pushing his project through at all costs. What if this obstinacy signaled his political demise?

2025 Budget: a forced passage under high tension

The National Assembly is about to experience an electrifying week. This Monday, February 3, François Bayrou will trigger Article 49.3 to adopt the state budget, closely followed by that of social security. A maneuver that evokes a general outcry in a France already on the ground due to an unprecedented spike in the unemployment rate.

The France Unbowed has already launched a motion of censure, with the ecologists and communists rallying to it, while the socialists are still hesitant.

The National Rally, on the other hand, plays the suspense card. “He must pack his bags!” ironizes Tony Leprêtre on X.

But what is most troubling are the numbers. Initially estimated at a deficit of 16 billion euros, the social security budget risks plunging to 23 billion, even 30 in case of failure.

In an attempt to save face, the government proposes:

• A one billion euro extension for hospitals;
• The elimination of the co-payment (400 million euros);
• An increase in taxes on sodas and online gambling (300 million euros);
• A higher tax on mutual insurance to recover a billion;
• A reduction of the compensation ceiling for sick leave (400 million euros).

Enough to give cold sweats to those who fear a tax burden increase.

Jean-Louis thus quotes Nicolas Beytout:

“It is a very bad budget. All those who have looked into it say so!”

Bayrou facing an opposition in ambush

If Bayrou thought he was playing an easy billiards game, he is likely to find himself facing an outraged opposition. On the right, Laurent Wauquiez blows hot and cold. He claims to be “firmly opposed to tax increases” and is still awaiting a gesture from the executive on security and immigration.

Among the Republicans, support is determined “text by text”, leaving Bayrou to navigate blindly.

The RN, for its part, senses the smell of blood and is already preparing its offensive. Jean-Philippe Tanguy claims that the budget is “worse than the absence of a budget” and advocates for censure. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella will have the final word, but already the party anticipates an inevitable dissolution. An eventuality that would suit their interests well.

On the left, the confusion is the same. LFI speaks of a “right-wing budget”, which makes William Thay smile:

“What would a left-wing budget be when France is already taxing half of the national wealth?”

A statement that says a lot about the quagmire in which Bayrou has sunk.

The French economy at an impasse?

By betting on a swift adoption of the 2025 budget, Bayrou hopes to avoid stagnation. But the gamble is risky. In addition to a staggering deficit, the French economy struggles to regain its breath. Europe watches from a distance, while the national budget situation approaches an electric shock.

If the government aimed to reassure, it has failed. The new day of solidarity, supposed to finance assistance for senior citizens, raises eyebrows even among the majority ranks. Working seven more hours per year without remuneration? An idea that Bayrou himself eventually dismissed. But will that be enough to calm tensions?

While the executive tries to maintain a good appearance, distrust is rising. Between rising taxes, precarious public finances, and a toxic political climate, Bayrou is walking on hot coals. The opposition is waiting for only one thing: to see him stumble.

It is not surprising that Bayrou is facing a wall. His forced passage with the 49.3, coupled with widespread dissent, puts him in a weak position. Wasn’t his appointment last December already a sign of a collapse of the Republic?

Mikaia A.

La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.