Key Points
- Bitcoin’s bear market has been dominant recently, potentially pushing the cryptocurrency’s price down to $40K.
- Historically, September has seen Bitcoin’s most bearish trends, adding to the uncertainty of the current market.
Bitcoin’s bear market has caused a consolidation of its price within a particular range, putting the potential for a bull rebound at risk. If the bear market maintains its dominance, it is possible that Bitcoin could fall to $40K.
Bitcoin’s Uncertain Outlook
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading above $57K, a critical level for a potential rebound. If the bulls can hold this position, Bitcoin could rally towards the $68K resistance. However, if the bear market takes control and Bitcoin loses the $55K support, it could potentially decline to between $50K-$51K. If this support fails, a deeper drop toward $40K could be on the horizon.
Historically, September has been Bitcoin’s most bearish month, with only four positive years out of the past 13. This historical trend adds to the uncertainty of the current market situation.
Bear Market Dominance
Analysts are warning that the bear market could regain control. The TD sequential indicator on the Bitcoin 2-month chart is showing a sell signal, suggesting a potential drop. If Bitcoin falls below $51,000, it might slide to $40,600, a scenario that bulls would ideally want to avoid.
In order to prevent this, it is crucial to maintain the $57K support level. It is believed that reducing overcrowding in leveraged positions could help prevent sudden, sharp price movements. If open interest is reduced by 10%, it could help stabilize the market and result in a bear pullback or a bullish swing.
The bear market has been dominant at the start of September, keeping the price within the $59K – $57K range. If the bear market takes control and Bitcoin tests the $56,572 price range, about $45 million in 100x leverage positions could be liquidated, potentially pushing the price closer to $51K.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin moves closer to $57,400, around $67 million in short positions could be liquidated. High open interest with shorts dominating the derivatives landscape could favor the bear market. Therefore, maintaining the $56K – $57K support level is crucial for a potential breakout.
In recent developments, it appears that institutions are selling Bitcoin. Crypto asset management company Ceffu has deposited 3,063 Bitcoin, worth $182 million into Binance since the 26th of August. This move suggests a lack of optimism among large holders. If this trend continues, it could trigger market panic.
To defend the $57K support and target $68K, long-term holders must avoid a selling spree. Otherwise, with shorts dominating, Bitcoin might fall to $51K and potentially below $40K.
