This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
Stocks traded sideways — stalling their pre-Christmas rally — and cryptos dipped Thursday, making one of the final trading days of the year a relatively quiet one.
The S&P 500 was down 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.02% at 2 pm ET. Bitcoin and ether were down 3% and 3.8%, respectively, over the past 24 hours at that time.
The post-holiday moves came as investors unpacked one of the only economic data reports of the week: initial jobless claims.
There were 210,000 first-time filers for the week ended Dec. 21, marking a slight decrease from the week prior and coming in lower than median expectation of 224,000. Continuing claims, however, came in at 1.9 million, slightly higher than the anticipated 1.88 million.
The mixed report did not budge odds of an interest rate cut from the Fed next month. Fed funds futures markets on Thursday called for a 91% chance central bankers hold rates on Jan. 29, per data from CME Group.
“One factor that pressures equities is the behavior of the fixed income market,” Pepperstone research strategist Quasar Elizundia said. “The continued rise in bond yields, driven by the reassessment of less restrictive monetary policy expectations, creates some concern.”
Stocks are going to face additional headwinds, Elizundia added, given that investors seem certain interest rates in 2025 will not fall as much as previously anticipated.
On the crypto front, the real market-movers in 2025 are likely to revolve around regulatory news. New leadership at the SEC and CFTC, combined with a Republican-majority Congress and campaign promises from President-elect Donald Trump, could set the stage for a breakout in the first half of the new year.
Still, though, it would be foolish to count out the role macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy have on crypto prices, so we’d suggest keeping an eye on just about everything (or at least your inbox) next year.
Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.
Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.
Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.
The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
