US Treasury links crypto stablecoin growth to rising T-Bill demand

Stablecoin expansion is fueling demand for short-term U.S. government bonds—Treasury bills (T-bills), says the U.S. Treasury’s latest meeting minutes.

These records from October 29 reveal that as crypto-backed stablecoins grow, so does interest in T-bills. Meeting attendees discussed the potential of tokenizing Treasury assets on a blockchain, possibly a permissioned blockchain specifically for T-bills.

In this closed session held by the U.S. Treasury’s Borrowing Advisory Committee, several high-profile Treasury and Federal Reserve officials were in attendance.

The Committee, starting at 9:00 a.m., included Heather Masciotti of Citigroup, along with officials like Nellie Liang, Under Secretary for Domestic Finance; Fiscal Assistant Secretary David Lebryk; Josh Frost, Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets; and Brian Smith, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance. 

With them were Debt Management officials Fred Pietrangeli and Tom Katzenbach, plus key staff from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including Ellen Correia Golay, Oliver Giannotti, and Kyle Watson. Other U.S. Treasury staff members and additional federal representatives packed the meeting.

Treasury FY2024 receipts and outlays soar

Kicking off the review, Director Fred Pietrangeli shared the fiscal year 2024 data. Treasury receipts climbed to $4.92 trillion, up $479 billion or 11% from the prior year. This jump stemmed from increases in non-withheld and corporate taxes, thanks to federal deadline extensions from fiscal year 2023 into 2024, the new Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT), and job growth across the board.

Meanwhile, outlays also rose to $6.75 trillion, marking a 10% rise primarily driven by higher interest payments on public debt and cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security and other transfer payments.

On projections, Pietrangeli touched on borrowing needs through fiscal years 2025 and 2026. According to primary dealer estimates, the median borrowing for the upcoming two years stands around $128 billion higher than previously expected.

This adjustment mirrors the dealers’ concerns over fiscal and monetary policy directions, economic conditions, and the continued impact of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions.

Deputy Director Tom Katzenbach took the mic next, diving into bond issuance expectations. According to him, nominal coupon issuance isn’t expected to change much in November. Looking further, dealers expect only modest increases by late 2025 or early 2026. The debt limit suspension’s expiration in 2025 could complicate things, however, adding an element of uncertainty to future plans. 

Buybacks, treasury market resilience, and stablecoin demand for T-Bills

Debt Manager Joshua Stachura summarized dealers’ views on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Despite some weakening demand from retail investors due to falling inflation, most primary dealers agree there’s room for more TIPS in the market.

Dealers suggested small additions to the 5-year or 10-year tenors, emphasizing that gradual increases in size would be best. Some were also open to a new TIPS benchmark at the short end of the curve, though they raised questions about auction timing given the current cycle.

Adding to that, Pietrangeli welcomed fresh Committee members, including Joe Demetrick, Sara Devereux, Greg Peters, and Scott Rofey, with Under Secretary Liang giving a quick update on Treasury priorities.

Debt Manager Chris Chisholm reviewed recent buybacks, noting that since the program’s May start, Treasury purchased over $50 billion in securities across 25 operations.

In cash management buybacks, Treasury hit the maximum $5 billion in four instances. However, liquidity support buybacks didn’t always reach the maximum, showing Treasury’s price-sensitive stance in evaluating offers.

Dealers offered mostly positive feedback on these buybacks, saying they cut down volatility in both Treasury’s cash balance and T-bill auction sizes. However, the modest buyback size limited its effect. 

Dealers called for larger cash management buybacks, noting another round could come in December 2024 and April 2025 when fiscal inflows are high. They also commented on the buybacks’ positive impact on liquidity in the short-term nominal coupons sector.

The Committee then tackled the Treasury market’s stability, reviewing updates from the Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance (IAWG). The presentation highlighted strong Treasury liquidity, resilient market performance during the 2023 banking crisis, and broader transparency thanks to more public data.

Concerns were raised, however, about dealers’ limited growth relative to issuance, some investor sectors’ slowing T-bill demand, and the increasing role of principal trading firms in intermediation.

The speaker proposed several market resilience measures: exempting Treasuries from the supplementary leverage ratio, central clearing for the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, and prioritizing month-end stress testing.

Attendees discussed topics like cash versus futures Treasuries for asset managers, Treasury holdings in bank portfolios, and the rise of passive index investing’s impact on Treasury dynamics.

After lunch at 11:50 a.m., the Committee returned at 1:20 p.m. and opened discussions on digital assets in the Treasury market. The presenting member noted that as stablecoins grow, they’re driving modest demand for short-term T-bills, given that stablecoin collateral often includes T-bills or Treasury-backed repurchase agreements. 

Tokenization efforts, blockchain, and market impact

The Committee also reviewed tokenization efforts for Treasury assets. Essentially, tokenization aims to represent Treasury ownership via blockchain or a distributed ledger. Members considered tokenization’s operational and market benefits but noted risks around tech, regulations, and financial stability.

One member proposed a U.S.-government-managed permissioned blockchain as a possible solution to avoid broader market risks. Although digital assets are growing, the members concluded that they have minimal direct impact on Treasury issuance and market health so far.

As the meeting wrapped, the Committee issued its upcoming quarter financing advice. It recommended that Treasury keep nominal coupon and Floating Rate Note (FRN) auction sizes unchanged, suggesting gradual increases for TIPS auction sizes.

The Committee then took a brief break, reconvening at 3:00 p.m. for the report’s final elements. The day ended with the Chair presenting a summary report to Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo.

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