Bitcoin – What Is The Rational Goal For 2025?

The evolution of the bitcoin price in 2025 will depend on three main parameters: macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the arrival of nation-states.

Macro Aspect

Despite the optimism and enthusiasm surrounding the creation of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the US budget will not return to balance.

Despite the constantly renewed promises, it is highly likely that debt (and thus the money supply) will continue to grow at the same rate. That is to say, by 7 to 8% per year. The savings made by DOGE will probably only have a marginal impact on the deficit.

However, this combo [Escalation of debt / Scarcity of energy resources] is the main driver of bitcoin’s appreciation. A sluggish productivity (amount of goods produced per person) coupled with increasingly larger deficits can only be inflationary.

Let’s remember that cumulative inflation since the beginning of 2021 amounts to 25% on both sides of the Atlantic! An inflation that ordinary people are facing head-on (due to a lack of real estate, art, stock market shares, etc.). Hence the growing interest in the simple but effective bitcoin strategy.

In 2024, the US money supply M2 increased by 3.6%. This growth is expected to accelerate further in 2025, knowing that the long-term trend is 7%. It will come from the decrease in rates, which will allow more households and businesses to borrow.

How much inflation in 2025?

Inflation was close to 3% in 2024 in the United States. The increase in energy production promised by Donald Trump could boost productivity and cool inflation.

Indeed: Productivity = Machines = Energy = Oil.

Increasing energy production eases prices of energy and food. However, it is not enough to sign decrees to produce oil. This maximum energy production will take time, if it happens at all…

The fact is that the conventional oil peak (cheap to extract) dates back to 1971 in the United States. Shale oil is much more expensive, and the peak seems to be just around the corner. So, unless gas is sold at a gold price to Europe, there won’t be any miracle.

In the reverse scenario (annexation of Canada and Greenland to extract oil?…), achieving higher energy production will justify the continued lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

That said, even if consumer prices flatten, we should not kid ourselves: asset inflation will persist due to the relentless increase in the money supply.

This is how the fiat system is a Ponzi scheme that must perpetually inflate the money supply. This system is neither good nor bad. It is likely the least bad, considering that humanity is always evolving towards the most efficient systems.

In normal times (the glorious 30), salaries manage to keep up due to increased productivity. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case. The fruits from the low-hanging branches (conventional oil) have been picked…

But let’s get back to Bitcoin.

Strategic Reserve

One way or another, Donald Trump will follow through on his commitment to a “strategic reserve of bitcoins” for the country.

The basic hypothesis is a decree converting the approximately 200,000 BTC currently held by the United States into an official strategic reserve. This would already be incredibly bullish.

This would lead to a domino effect, and we already hear the former German Minister of Finance going in that direction. This would help salvage the situation given that the catastrophe Olaf Scholz sold the country’s 50,000 BTC at an average price of $57,600….

An even more bullish scenario would be if the Trump government accumulates hundreds of thousands, or even millions of bitcoins. This scenario is less likely but far from impossible. The reason being that D. Trump wants to reindustrialize his country. And that involves a decline in the dollar, which he could achieve by purchasing millions of BTC abroad.

This would also be a significant geopolitical poker move against the BRICS, who no longer want the dollar. The glorious era of greenback hegemony is slowly coming to an end, and the most serious contender is undoubtedly bitcoin.

Vladimir Putin recently endorsed it by saying that “no one can ban it.” His Finance Minister announced that bitcoin will henceforth be used for international payments.

And in the meantime, France still refuses to mine using surplus nuclear electricity. What a delay for the “blockchain nation” while the United States, Russia, and China already control 35%, 17%, and 15% of the hashrate, respectively.

Bitcoin on Company Balance Sheets

The adoption of bitcoin by companies as a treasury asset is a trend that is accelerating. The undeniable success of MicroStrategy and those who imitate its strategy shows that many wealth managers are eager to bet on bitcoin through publicly traded multinationals.

The creation of Bitcoin ETFs at the beginning of the year and the positive publicity from the world’s most sophisticated investors have eliminated the “career risk” that previously existed for bitcoin proponents. A CFO no longer has to fear being fired for merely suggesting a position in bitcoin.

Additionally, the recent modification of FASB accounting rules now allows for the appreciation of bitcoin price to be recorded on the balance sheet, making BTC holdings much more acceptable in the eyes of accountants.

As a result, more and more companies are adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. The fact that Microsoft shareholders refused to adopt this strategy only delays the inevitable.

Let’s note that multinationals and nations are mainly accumulating bitcoins. The “Alt seasons” are no longer profitable, and we should expect that a substantial portion of the $1 trillion still invested in the shitcoin casino will pivot to bitcoin.

As an example, the BCH (Bitcoin Cash) fork ended the year 2024 with another 22% decline relative to BTC. It is only worth 0.47% of the real bitcoin.

How far will bitcoin rise in 2025?

Will we do as well as in 2024 with its 120% increase? Perhaps. Many firms anticipate it. Here are the TOP 35 assets that appreciated the most in 2024:

Blockware – which precisely predicted in 2023 that we would reach $100,000 in 2024 – has published its new prediction. “We expect 2025 to be a prosperous year for the BTC price,” it reads.

Here are its three scenarios for 2025:

● Scenario $150,000:
-Trump does not follow through on the BTC reserve
-The Fed reverses on interest rate cuts again

● Scenario $225,000:
-Current US holdings are transformed into a strategic reserve.
-The Fed lowers interest rates as anticipated.

● Most likely scenario $400,000:
-The United States creates a BTC reserve while accumulating more.
-The Fed becomes even more dovish.
-A multinational from the Magnificent 7 adds bitcoin to its treasury [Magnificent 7: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla]

The firm managing the Bitwise ETF aims for $200,000:

“Record flows into ETFs have propelled bitcoin to new all-time highs in 2024. We do not believe this demand will slow down anytime soon. Combine this with the supply reduction due to the April 2024 halving, plus the new purchases by companies and governments, well… If the US government buys a million bitcoins as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, our $200,000 target rises to $500,000.”

Your humble servant shares this view. In this regard, don’t miss our article: Bitcoin, Trump’s Plan B.

Nicolas T.

Bitcoin, geopolitical, economic and energy journalist.