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The appetite of investors for altcoins continues to grow, as evidenced by the spectacular increase in their trading volume on Binance, which now accounts for 78 % of the platform’s activity. This record level raises questions: is the market on the brink of a new bull run for altcoins? According to Burakkesmeci, an analyst at CryptoQuant, this trend constitutes a strong signal, reinforcing the hypothesis of a bullish market in 2025. However, despite this enthusiasm, some indicators remain mixed. Bitcoin still dominates the market with 57.74 % of the total market cap, and the Altcoin Season Index, down to 46 out of 100, does not yet confirm a clear shift towards altcoins. In light of these contradictory signals, the current dynamics reflect more of a gradual rise in power than an immediate cycle change.
An altcoin market on the rise on Binance
For several months, Binance has recorded a continuous increase in the trading volume of altcoins, illustrating a growing interest from investors in these assets. In January 2025, their dominance on the platform reached 77.83 %, up from 50.80 % in May 2024, representing an 11 % increase in just seven months. According to Burakkesmeci, this rise signals a renewed confidence in the altcoin market, supported by an influx of retail investors. He stated on January 11, 2025, that “the constant growth of altcoin trading volume on Binance reinforces the hypothesis of a bull market in 2025.”
Despite this momentum, Bitcoin maintains a dominant position with 57.74 % of the total market cap, according to TradingView. Additionally, its market share has increased by 2.41 % over the past 30 days, contradicting the idea of a massive shift towards altcoins. Another indicator tempers this enthusiasm: the Altcoin Season Index from CoinMarketCap, which measures the performance of the top 100 cryptos over 90 days, scores 46 out of 100. This level remains well below the usual threshold that indicates an altseason. In December 2024, this index reached 64, a decline of 18 points, suggesting that despite rising volumes on Binance, the overall market has not yet fully shifted towards altcoins.
While these signals indicate a growing interest in alternative cryptos, the real question remains whether this trend will mark the beginning of a sustainable bullish cycle or if it is merely a temporary recovery in activity on Binance.
Bitcoin and Ethereum : catalysts or brakes on the altcoin market?
The rise of altcoins on Binance is attracting investor interest, but does not guarantee the emergence of a generalized bullish market. For this trend to be sustainable, the evolution of Bitcoin and Ethereum remains a critical factor. Historically, a marked decline in Bitcoin’s dominance has always been a key signal announcing an altseason. However, with a market share of 57.74 %, up 2.41 % over the last 30 days, this shift still seems premature.
While Bitcoin retains its grip on the market, Ethereum could play a key role in the capital shift toward altcoins. On January 11, 2025, Mister Crypto, an influential trader, stated on X (formerly Twitter) that “ETH could see a significant rally and rise from $4,000 to $8,000 in the coming weeks.” Such a surge would be a strong signal for the altcoin market, especially for those operating within the Ethereum ecosystem. In the past, a spike in the price of ETH has often preceded a massive influx of capital into altcoins.
However, some analysts believe this altseason could differ from previous ones. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, warns against a simplistic approach to the market. According to him, only projects with a solid use case and a genuine value proposition will be able to stand out. Unlike past cycles, where profits made on Bitcoin were systematically reinvested into altcoins, he argues that this mechanism is no longer automatic. Such a paradigm shift could lead to a more selective altseason, characterized by a polarization between innovative projects and those struggling to justify their place in the market.
The rise of altcoins on Binance, with 78 % of trading volume dedicated to these assets, reflects an exponential interest from investors in alternatives to Bitcoin. However, this dynamic is not enough to confirm the arrival of a generalized altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance, still high at 57.74 %, hinders a true rotation of capital, while the Altcoin Season Index, down to 46 out of 100, remains below the critical threshold. The evolution of ETH, with some analysts anticipating a major rally, could play a decisive role in the upcoming trend. However, caution is still warranted. Only altcoins with solid use cases and a convincing value proposition could truly make their mark in this cycle, leaving little space for purely speculative projects.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
