Bitcoin’s journey into 2025 has been marked by notable developments, demonstrating its growing appeal to institutions and its potential for further market expansion. Italy’s largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, made headlines with its historic Bitcoin investment, signaling a shift in traditional finance’s approach to digital assets. Meanwhile, market analysis from ARK Invest has shed light on Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s volatility remains well within historical norms, leaving room for continued growth in the years ahead.
Bitcoin Volatility Reflects Market Growth as Crypto Prepares for Trump’s Inauguration
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements in December showcased the cryptocurrency’s resilience and potential for continued growth despite sharp fluctuations. After briefly surpassing the $100,000 milestone, Bitcoin’s inability to sustain this level raised questions about its trajectory. However, ARK Invest’s latest report, The Bitcoin Monthly, suggests that December’s volatility was well within historical norms and points to a promising outlook for 2025.
ARK Invest’s December analysis compared Bitcoin’s monthly and yearly realized volatility—a key metric assessing price fluctuations over time. While December saw a noticeable uptick in volatility, ARK highlighted that the changes were relatively subdued when compared to Bitcoin’s yearly averages.
An illustrative chart from ARK Invest brought attention to this observation. It showed a green line, representing Bitcoin’s monthly volatility, remained tame relative to a purple line showing its yearly volatility. This low relative volatility suggests Bitcoin has yet to enter the mania phase typical of its bull cycles.
Such market behavior indicates that Bitcoin still has considerable upward potential. “These data points suggest room for further market expansion during 2025,” ARK stated, reinforcing the notion that the cryptocurrency could see significant gains in the near future.
Further bolstering Bitcoin’s bullish case are several other metrics tracked by ARK Invest. Key highlights include:
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Mining Difficulty: Bitcoin’s network continued to experience increased mining difficulty in December, a sign of growing network security and miner confidence.
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Holder Behavior: Remarkably, 62% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved in over a year, despite the cryptocurrency doubling in value during 2024. This strong holding behavior reflects long-term investor confidence.
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Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: Metrics around short-term holders’ average acquisition prices suggest that new entrants into the market are not engaging in panic selling despite price fluctuations.
These indicators collectively point to a healthy and robust market, setting the stage for continued growth as the new year progresses.
One of the key drivers of Bitcoin’s December rally was the election of Donald Trump, who pledged during his campaign to establish the United States as the global leader in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
Trump’s administration is already shaping up to deliver on these promises. His appointment of Paul Atkins, a pro-crypto advocate, as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), signals a regulatory framework that could foster innovation and adoption. Additionally, David Sacks, named as the administration’s top crypto and AI advisor, has garnered widespread approval from the crypto community.
Pantera Capital, a leading crypto investment firm, expects Trump’s presidency to legitimize Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies further. Their analysts predict new all-time highs in the months following his inauguration. This optimism is echoed by many in the industry, with expectations that Trump will sign crypto-specific executive orders immediately after taking office on Jan. 20. According to The Washington Post, these orders aim to clarify and streamline the US crypto regulatory landscape.
Market Outlook: A Bullish Cycle in the Making?
December’s market data, coupled with Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, paints a compelling picture for Bitcoin’s future. ARK Invest’s report suggests that the current market dynamics indicate Bitcoin is far from its peak. Instead, the cryptocurrency appears poised for further expansion, potentially fueled by regulatory clarity and broader institutional adoption.
As 2025 kicks off, the convergence of strong market fundamentals and a supportive political environment may solidify Bitcoin’s position as a leading global asset. While volatility remains a hallmark of the crypto market, its current levels suggest a measured path forward, offering investors both excitement and opportunity.
For now, all eyes are on Jan. 20, when Trump’s inauguration could herald a new era for cryptocurrency in the United States. If the anticipated executive orders and policies align with market expectations, Bitcoin’s journey toward new heights may be just beginning.
Italy’s Largest Bank Invests in Bitcoin, Signaling a New Era of Institutional Adoption
In related news, Italy’s largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, has become the first major Italian financial institution to invest directly in Bitcoin (BTC). The bank’s acquisition of 11 BTC, valued at approximately 1 million euros ($1.02 million), marks a significant milestone in the growing trend of institutional adoption of cryptocurrency.
The purchase, made on Jan. 13, follows Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent past the $100,000 mark in December, though its price has since seen some fluctuations. This development not only suggests there is an increasing interest of traditional financial institutions in digital assets but also signals a potential shift in how European banks approach cryptocurrency.
The news of Intesa Sanpaolo’s Bitcoin purchase emerged from a leaked internal email by Niccolò Bardoscia, the bank’s head of digital assets trading. In the email, Bardoscia celebrated the milestone, stating, “As of today 13/01/2025, Intesa Sanpaolo owns 11 Bitcoins. Thanks to everyone for the teamwork, this result would not have been possible without each of you.”
While the bank has yet to issue an official statement, it confirmed the acquisition to Wired, solidifying the credibility of the leak. A screenshot of Bardoscia’s email, shared on the platform 4chan, further fueled discussions across crypto and financial communities.
Intesa Sanpaolo’s move aligns with a broader trend of institutional investors taking advantage of Bitcoin’s price dip in early January. As Bitcoin’s price retreated below the $100,000 psychological threshold on Jan. 7, major players, including hedge funds and corporations, ramped up their BTC acquisitions.
This wave of buying activity has driven Bitcoin exchange reserves to their lowest levels in nearly seven years. The phenomenon of a “supply shock,” wherein limited BTC availability meets surging demand, is anticipated to create upward price pressure in the coming months.
Among notable buyers, MicroStrategy made headlines with a $243 million BTC purchase at an average price of $95,972, increasing its total holdings to over 450,000 BTC. Such moves further reinforce Bitcoin’s position as a strategic asset for institutional portfolios.
While Intesa Sanpaolo’s Bitcoin purchase highlights growing confidence in cryptocurrency, broader macroeconomic factors continue to influence Bitcoin’s performance. Analysts at Bybit noted that Bitcoin remains reactive to macroeconomic developments, particularly the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Despite these macroeconomic uncertainties, long-term projections for Bitcoin remain optimistic. Analysts predict a potential cycle high of over $150,000 by late 2025, driven by a forecasted $20 trillion increase in the global money supply. If this growth materializes, it could attract up to $2 trillion of new investment into Bitcoin, further solidifying its status as a key financial instrument.
A European Shift in Crypto Adoption?
Intesa Sanpaolo’s decision to invest in Bitcoin could herald a new era for European banks. Historically, European financial institutions have taken a cautious approach to cryptocurrency, often citing regulatory concerns. However, as global institutional interest in digital assets grows, European banks may increasingly view cryptocurrency as a necessary addition to their portfolios.
The Italian bank’s move also aligns with increasing regulatory clarity in the European Union. The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, set to be implemented in 2025, aims to establish a unified framework for digital assets across member states, potentially fostering greater institutional participation.
Intesa Sanpaolo’s entry into the Bitcoin market is more than just a financial investment—it is a symbolic step that reflects the shifting perception of cryptocurrency within traditional banking circles. As institutional interest continues to rise, Bitcoin’s position as a mainstream asset is further cemented, paving the way for increased adoption in the financial sector.
With the anticipation of President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies and executive orders, as well as the potential for a supply shock, Bitcoin may be on the cusp of another major rally. As institutions like Intesa Sanpaolo lead the charge, the integration of traditional finance and digital assets seems more inevitable than ever.
