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During this festive Christmas season, the crypto market is buzzing with a noticeable surge of optimism. Data from the bitcoin derivatives market suggests a strong probability that the queen of cryptos will reach 105,000 dollars, driven by persistent bullish sentiment and favorable technical indicators.
The Bitcoin derivatives market signals robust optimism
Traders and analysts are closely watching the movements of bitcoin, which, after a 14.5% correction from its all-time high of 108,275 dollars, shows encouraging signs of recovery.
The premium for monthly futures contracts, currently at 12% above the spot market, reflects a marked appetite for long positions. This configuration, significantly above the usual neutral range of 5-10%, also reflects the confidence of institutional investors in the bullish trajectory of bitcoin.
Bitcoin options reinforce this positive market reading, with a gap of only 2% between puts and calls, a level historically associated with market expansion phases. This metric, closely monitored by professionals, suggests that major market players maintain their bullish exposure despite recent volatility.
The Long/Short leverage ratio on OKX reaches remarkable levels, with a multiplier of 25x favoring long positions. Although significant, this level remains below the thresholds of excessive euphoria, generally situated above 40x.
The macroeconomic environment supports the bullish thesis
The recovery of traditional markets, symbolized by the rebound of the S&P 500 during the Christmas holidays, creates a favorable context for risky assets like bitcoin. The increase in yields on U.S. Treasury bonds at 10 years, now at 4.59%, paradoxically enhances bitcoin’s appeal as a safe haven against inflation.
The monetary policy outlook of the Federal Reserve, which now expects two rate cuts in 2025, helps maintain a favorable environment for digital assets. This position, while more conservative than initial expectations, continues to support the idea of abundant liquidity in the medium term.
The correlation level of 64% between bitcoin and the S&P 500 highlights the growing integration of crypto into the traditional financial landscape, while preserving its diversification potential.
In summary, the convergence of technical and fundamental indicators, coupled with bitcoin’s resilience in the face of recent corrections, suggests that the goal of 105,000 dollars is not only achievable but could mark a new milestone in the institutional adoption of crypto.
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Passionné par le Bitcoin, j’aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l’outil qui peut rendre cela possible.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
