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In its latest report “The Bitcoin Monthly”, ARK Invest suggests that a new bullish phase could emerge for bitcoin in 2025, based on a thorough analysis of its currently particularly moderate volatility.
The moderate volatility of Bitcoin paves the way for a rise in 2025
In its December report, ARK Invest provides an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s volatility, comparing monthly variations to annual fluctuations. The data reveals that despite notable price movements, current volatility remains moderate compared to historical norms. This unusual stability suggests that the market has not yet reached its euphoric phase, typically observed during cycle peaks.
The ARK team interprets this period of relative calm as a bullish signal for 2025. The report also relies on several promising on-chain indicators, among which the continuous increase in mining difficulty and the behavior of historical investors.
A particularly striking figure emerges from this analysis: 62% of the total Bitcoin supply has remained idle for over a year. This metric reflects remarkable confidence from long-term holders, who maintain their positions despite market fluctuations.
Robust technical fundamentals support the bullish thesis
The strength of Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals is confirmed through several key indicators. The network hash rate continues to set new records, enhancing the security of the blockchain. The breakeven cost for short-term holders, an important indicator of market sentiment, also suggests a solid base for future expansion.
The growing institutional adoption also plays a crucial role in this stabilization. Capital inflows through regulated investment products indicate increased market maturity, helping to reduce the historical volatility of the asset.
The combination of these technical factors with moderate volatility creates, according to ARK Invest, the ideal conditions for a new phase of market expansion in 2025, potentially marking the beginning of a new bullish cycle for bitcoin.
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Passionné par le Bitcoin, j’aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l’outil qui peut rendre cela possible.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
