Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Fall to 8-Year Low as Price Approaches $90K

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• Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges has dropped to an 8-year low at 7.53%.

• BTC is trading around $87,300 after rebounding from a March correction, approaching the key $90K level.

• Analysts cite tightening supply, ETF inflows, and macro trends as potential catalysts for a new all-time high in 2025.

Bitcoin’s supply on centralized exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2017, with just 7.53% of the total circulating supply currently held on trading platforms. The ongoing decline points to a growing urge by holders to keep assets in self-custody wallets rather than on exchanges.

The shift has accelerated amid growing concerns over exchange security and tighter regulatory oversight. This trend has picked up steam in recent years, as exchange failures and increasing regulatory oversight have increased the focus on asset security and ownership by users. 

As more users emphasize asset security and ownership, the trend is toward a maturing market structure that could sustain long-term price stability and appreciation.

BTC Rebounds Following March Correction

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,750 in early March 2024 following the approval and rollout of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

The price subsequently corrected by over 10%, briefly falling to approximately $65,000. As of March 27, 2025, BTC is trading near $87,300, approaching the $90,000 mark.

The rebound has occurred despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, including questions around U.S. Federal Reserve rate policy and global economic conditions. 

Technical signals such as a “death cross”—where the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day—have appeared on short-term charts, but analysts caution against drawing definitive conclusions in light of Bitcoin’s historically volatile behavior.

Analysts Eye New Highs Following Supply Squeeze

With liquid supply reducing and demand from institutional investors growing, the possibility of a new all-time high remains possible. The continued success of spot ETFs, in addition to the continued impact of the April 2024 halving—which reduced Bitcoin’s block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC—has effectively contributed to tighter supply dynamics.

Martin Leinweber, digital asset strategist at MarketVector Indexes, forecasts a potential cycle peak of $150,000 by the end of 2025. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci has projected a more aggressive target of $200,000 over the same period, citing institutional flows and improved regulatory clarity.

Analysts also refer to Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A weaker dollar would further strengthen Bitcoin’s narrative as a store of value, adding more fuel to the bull case.