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Bitcoin may have reached its local bottom and could be poised for a rebound toward $90,000, driven by shifts in US economic policy, according to crypto analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
In a March 23 report, Thielen highlighted US President Donald Trump’s softened rhetoric on upcoming reciprocal tariffs, hinting at greater flexibility. This shift in tone, paired with the Federal Reserve’s decision to overlook short-term inflationary pressures during its March 18-19 meeting, has sparked optimism for a potential Bitcoin recovery.
“Trump’s willingness to show flexibility on the April 2 reciprocal tariffs and the Fed’s mildly dovish stance suggest a supportive backdrop for both equities and crypto,” Thielen wrote.
Bitcoin’s 21-day moving average (MA) currently sits at $85,200, indicating that the asset is attempting to form a solid base. Thielen noted that bullish reversal indicators have emerged, mirroring patterns seen in September 2023 during the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) narrative and again in August 2024 as US election speculation heated up.
Altcoins Break Out, Bitcoin Faces Resistance
Bitcoin is trading at $85,720, marking a 2.1% increase over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Meanwhile, several altcoins, after plunging in double digits, are now showing stronger momentum. Ether, Tron, and Avalanche have gained 4.3%, 6.4%, and 8.9% over the past week, respectively.
Despite the positive outlook, Thielen warned that Bitcoin could face significant resistance at the $90,000 level. While the technical indicators signal a potential uptrend, he noted that no immediate catalyst for a parabolic rally is currently in sight.
However, Thielen remains optimistic that BTC will avoid entering a deep bear market. He pointed out that the largest bracket of Bitcoin holders—wallets containing 100-1,000 BTC—are likely controlled by family offices and long-term wealth managers, who are less prone to panic selling.
ETF Inflows Add to Bullish Sentiment
Adding to the bullish case, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows last week for the first time since January’s final week.
Thielen believes that the selling pressure from arbitrage-focused investors has mostly subsided, as the related opportunities have been diminishing.
“We expect ETF outflows to wind down, as most arbitrage opportunities have closed,” Thielen added.
