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Bitcoin price is showing significant volatility, yet key metrics demonstrate that the bull market is far from over.
While recent market corrections have caused some traders to worry, historical patterns together with on-chain indicators show different signs.
The True Market Mean Price together with the AVIV Ratio present similar signals to those observed in the 2021 China Ban crash period.
BTC’s upcoming major price movement is emerging as sentiment has shifted alongside strategic moves from smart money
Bitcoin’s True Market Mean Price Holds at $64K
The True Market Mean Price for Bitcoin currently stands at approximately $64,000 according to data from Alphractal.
The metric removes BTC mining operations to show authentic market demand for the token.
Historically, Bitcoin shows that its price rebounds from this level before entering major upward price movements.
In a similar pattern, the crypto experienced a major decline during mid-2021 after China implemented its mining restrictions.
During that period, the True Market Mean Price remained steady while Bitcoin reached new all-time highs in a span of months.
Meanwhile, the current support level matches the previous one, which indicates that history might play out again.
The cryptocurrency could consolidate before its next price increase if it manages to maintain this level.
But a decline in price below this level would indicate a potential market correction, which could eliminate weak investors before the start of long-term recovery.
Either way, this critical level serves as an essential marker that traders across the market currently monitor.
AVIV Ratio Shows Market Cooling, But No Peak Yet
Additionally, this second chart by Alphractal introduces the AVIV Ratio, which serves as a historical market top indicator.
The present decline of this ratio indicates Bitcoin has not reached its maximum euphoria state.
The AVIV Ratio demonstrates that BTC reaches its peak during bull cycles when it shows a sudden large increase. In contrast, the indicator presents a downward trend during the accumulation phases.
Currently, the state of AVIV Ratio indicates more market expansion remains possible before reaching a peak.
Crypto Sentiment and Social Hype Are Still in Play
Furthermore, according to data from the Alpha Crypto Sentiment Gauge and X sentiment analysis, market psychology shows an interesting transformation.
The price correction of Bitcoin has not caused sentiment indicators to turn negative, as investors continue to demonstrate positive confidence.
Although the sentiment expressed through social media on X platforms shows a minor decline, BTC still remains above bearish levels.
Historically, market corrections that maintain neutral to positive sentiment tend to lead to powerful price rallies.
Furthermore, the token maintains purchasing interest as its social media sentiment indicators have not reached a complete collapse.
The market isn’t in peak euphoria yet, but it also isn’t in a full downturn. And the market conditions indicate another powerful rally could occur before reaching the last cycle peak.
Also, the current sentiment levels indicate traders should hold onto their green investments, but they should remain cautious because extreme euphoria has not reached its peak.
What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?
Bitcoin maintains a positive outlook because sentiment remains stable while support rests at $64K and the AVIV Ratio declines.
The current support at this level presents an opportunity for Bitcoin to reach new heights above $80K.
However, a breakdown of support at $64K would trigger a potential revaluation at $55K–$58K before another upward movement begins.
