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Bitcoin price traded below $84,000 on March 29, testing support as selling pressure increased.
The move followed a sharp intraday decline of 3.1%, taking BTC to a low of $83,696. Technical analysts are now warning of further downside.
In an X post, veteran trader Peter Brandt said that Bitcoin may drop below $70,000.
He responded to another trader’s analysis showing BTC facing strong resistance near $90,000 while forming a rising wedge—typically a bearish reversal setup. When asked whether BTC could lose the $70K handle, Brandt said,
“Would not be unreasonable.”
Bearish Patterns Converge With Macro Pressure
The rising wedge formation isn’t the only concern. Bitcoin price also shows signs of completing a break-and-retest of the $89,000 neckline from its double-top at $108,675. This adds weight to a bearish bias in the near term.
Crypto Chase, a popular X-based technical analyst, noted BTC must hold the $85,270 area.
If not, he warned of a short setup targeting $80,000 due to visible liquidity buildup. He wrote,
“Do or die…Either holds this FVG / 2 weeks ago high… or it fails.”
The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) also flipped into resistance again, with traders watching the daily close for confirmation.
Options Expiry and Whale Activity Add Downside Risk
Data from Deribit shows Bitcoin options worth $16.5 billion are due for expiry this week.
The maximum pain point sits at $85,000, making it a likely battleground for short-term volatility.
Meanwhile, whale behaviour adds pressure. According to Glassnode, whales accumulated 15,000 BTC at $78,000 and sold near the recent $87,000 high.
With little remaining demand at $78,000, support there now looks thin. According to Glassnode,
“Support at $78K is now weak…Efficient traders have already exited.”
Paxton and Merlijn Trader also considered the $84K—$85K range crucial. Failure to hold it could lead to an explosive move, with the latter calling it “crucial” in a March 28 update.
Macro Uncertainty Ahead of Trump’s Liberation Day
Macro headwinds loom. Donald Trump’s upcoming “Liberation Day” could impact market sentiment, with reciprocal tariffs expected to rattle global markets.
In the short term, such moves could spark risk-off conditions for crypto. Capital Flows, a macro analysis firm, warned that neutral macro liquidity and carry trade risks could send BTC lower.
The firm said BTC may revisit the $72K–$75K area if conditions stay unchanged, adding,
“Liquidity remains neutral… capital still flows to low-risk assets.”
While some traders remain bullish—Crypto Elites calling for $150K by May and others citing the M2 money supply growth—the divergence between global M2 and macro liquidity continues to limit upside bets.
Analyst Spots Rare Bitcoin Price Bull Signal Under the Surface
Despite broad bearishness, trader Cole Garner offered a contrarian view. In a Mar. 28 X thread, he highlighted a spike in a key Bitfinex margin trading metric.
According to him, the long/short rate of change has accurately predicted major Bitcoin price rallies during past cycles.
According to Garner,
“Last 3 times this metric went vertical? BTC averaged 50%+ within 50 days.”
He called the move cyclical and described the signal as “near perfect,” although it was hard to front-run.
Garner suspects Tether uses its liquidity strategically on Bitfinex’s thinner books, creating a market imbalance that bots react to. He noted,
“Reflexivity kicks in…Market usually takes 20–40 minutes to price in the move.”
Short-Term Bounce or Deeper Correction?
Bitcoin filled the CME gap between $84,435 and $85,000, often a precursor to a short-term bounce. However, unless BTC reclaims the $89,000–$90,000 range, the threat of further downside persists.
According to Ted’s observations,
“Need a weekly close above $89K… then it’s game on.”
With conflicting signals—from bearish chart patterns to bullish margin data—the next move for Bitcoin price may depend on broader liquidity and how the market digests Trump’s tariff announcement.
