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In a major development, Bitcoin price has suffered its worst first-quarter performance since 2018.
CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin’s Q1 2025 performance is weakest between 2020 and 2025.
While investors and analysts react to market shifts, concerns grow over whether BTC is entering a prolonged bearish phase or setting up for a rebound.
Historical Quarterly BTC Price Outlook
Market data shows that Bitcoin has seen its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, with a 6.77% decline in Q1 2025.
Unfortunately, this breaks a six-year streak of relatively strong starts from the coin ahead of other digital assets.
It is important to say that since 2020, the Bitcoin Q1 price outlook has historically been a mix of bullish and bearish trends.
For example, in 2020, BTC fell by 10.83% in Q1 due to the global pandemic that hit the global economy.
In 2021, Bitcoin had a great Q1, surging by 103.17%. For context, Tesla’s infusion of $1.5 Billion into Bitcoin paved the way for its historic run in the stock markets.
Bitcoins, which were trading at a mere $9,000 in December 2021, shot up to a peak of $58,000 in three months.
In 2022, the market turned bearish. This was driven by macroeconomic tightening, regulatory pressure, and the collapse of major crypto firms.
For example, the US. SEC and other countries’ regulatory bodies started imposing regulations on digital assets trading and exchange operations.
Q1 2022 saw a 1.46% decline, followed by a devastating 56.2% drop in Q2, one of Bitcoin’s worst quarters on record.
This bear market continued through 2023, with Q3 seeing another 11.54% drop, although Q1 2023 had provided a strong 71.77% gain as the market attempted a recovery.
Interestingly, 2024 brought about positive market sentiment. Bitcoin’s price surged by 68.68% in Q1, largely fueled by spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and growing institutional interest.
However, 2025 has taken a sharp turn downward, with Q1 closing in the red as market conditions remain uncertain.
In his recent X post, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone warns that Bitcoin may face a great valuation reset.
He provided insight into the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, which peaked at 40x in 2024, suggesting that BTC may have outperformed its fundamental value.
McGlone compares this to historical bubbles like 1929 and 1999, warning of a potential market correction.
He argues that investors may favor gold over Bitcoin as macroeconomic conditions shift, leading to slower BTC growth or even a prolonged downturn.
What to Expect for Bitcoin (BTC) Price?
Last week, Bitcoin reached a historic milestone by mining its 888,888th block. This notable achievement marks the longest block in Bitcoin’s 15-year history.
As of March 2025, the world’s largest digital asset, Bitcoin, was trading at $88,499.85, or 4.27%, recovering slightly from its Q1 decline.
However, crypto analysts remain divided on its next move and price trajectory.
Some, like Arthur Hayes, predict that the BTC price could reach $110,000 before returning to $76,500. He cited potential Fed policy shifts as a catalyst behind this forecast.
Others, like H.C. Wainwright analysts, forecast a $225,000 price target based on increasing adoption.
However, market sentiment is mixed, with some warning that Bitcoin may have already peaked for 2025.
Still, reports show that Polymarket gives BTC a 61% probability of reaching $110,000, but a deeper correction remains a possibility.
