Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has warned that Bitcoin may face a “vicious sell-off” around the time Donald Trump takes office, in a blog post. Hayes cautioned that crypto investors have unrealistic expectations about what Trump can achieve. While Trump has pledged to make America “the crypto capital of the world” and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Hayes argues that his administration will only have 12 months to deliver on such ambitious promises.
“There are no politically acceptable solutions available to Trump to quickly bring about such change,” he wrote on Substack. He predicts that much of the president-elect’s term will be consumed by the 2026 midterm elections, with Republicans likely to lose control due to an impatient electorate.
“It is almost impossible for Trump to appease his base sufficiently to prevent the Democrats from retaking both legislative bodies in 2026. The people are impatient because they are desperate,” Hayes explains.
Once this realization sets in among investors, Hayes warns of a “harrowing dump” for Bitcoin and other so-called “Trump trades.” “Investors are setting themselves up for severe buyer’s remorse,” he added. Hayes is particularly skeptical about Trump’s plan to turn 200,000 BTC seized from criminals into a taxpayer-funded stockpile, predicting the reserve will not materialize.
“However, it doesn’t matter if a US strategic Bitcoin reserve happens because just the threat of it creates buying pressure,” he writes.
Elsewhere, Hayes speculates that a new catalyst for the crypto bull market could emerge if Mainland Chinese investors are allowed access to Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong. He also believes that EU leaders will “secretly buy crypto hand over fist,” while ordinary citizens will “suffer under state-sanctioned inflation.” “That’s just the way the croissant flakes,” he quips.
Though Hayes sees Bitcoin’s future as bright, he warns that the path to $1 million will be marked by sharp corrections. “Trump Truth tells me the best way to maximize returns is to own Bitcoin and crypto,” Hayes writes. “And therefore, I will be buying dips and rips. Yahtzee!!!”
Hayes, 39, is known for his bold predictions and opinions, but he is also candid about his track record. In September, he admitted his market predictions had only been accurate 25% of the time over the past year, calling the score “pretty shit to the common man.” However, Hayes noted that he remains profitable by capitalizing on long-term macroeconomic trends.
