Bitcoin price has entered a potential turning point as social sentiment reaches its lowest level of 2024. This is despite Bitcoin (BTC USD) sitting just 10% below its recent all-time high of $108,300.
Market intelligence platform Santiment reports that the ratio of positive to negative Bitcoin-related comments has dropped to four-to-five, creating what contrarian analysts view as a possible springboard for price recovery.
Market Sentiment Hits 2024 Low For Bitcoin (BTC USD)
The current social sentiment metrics paint a picture of widespread pessimism in the Bitcoin market.
Data from Santiment shows retail traders expressing what analysts call “severe FUD” (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).
This negative sentiment comes even as Bitcoin trades above $95,000, maintaining most of its yearly gains.
The ratio of positive to negative comments about Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest point this year, with only four positive comments for every five negative ones.
Market psychology experts often view extreme negative sentiment as a contrarian indicator. This principle suggests that when retail traders become overly pessimistic, smart money often takes the opposite position.
Santiment’s analysis supports this view, noting that markets frequently move contrary to retail expectations.
This pattern has played out multiple times during Bitcoin price 2024 bull run, where periods of peak pessimism preceded significant price rallies.
The timing of this sentiment drop aligns with familiar market patterns. The last time Bitcoin (BTC USD) witnessed three consecutive red daily candles was in early November 2024, just before a major price surge.
Technical Analysis Points to Range-Bound Trading
Bitcoin’s price structure suggests a sideways movement within a higher timeframe uptrend, according to analyst CrypNuevo.
The recent price action centers around last Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which triggered a market reaction that analysts now view as a shakeout rather than a trend reversal.
Two key factors support this interpretation: the Fed’s dot plot showing two rate cuts in 2025 versus market expectations of one, and the temporary drop being linked to Powell’s comment about the decision being “a closer call.”
The current trading range appears well-defined, with $85,000 serving as a critical support level.
CrypNuevo explains that breaking below this level could trigger a deeper correction to $72,000, but current price action suggests strength above this threshold.
The market shows particular interest in the $90,000 to $95,000 range, where significant buying pressure has emerged during recent dips.
Traders are watching several technical factors that point to continued upside potential. Multiple liquidation levels and liquidity pools sit above current prices, which historically attract price action as the market seeks to fill these gaps.
The presence of these technical targets, combined with the range-bound price action, suggests that the market might be consolidating before its next directional move.
Recovery Scenarios and Price Targets
Market analysis points to two main recovery paths for Bitcoin’s price action. The first scenario involves a W-formation pattern, where the price could find support around $92,000 before attempting a move back above $100,000.
The second, which CrypNuevo considers more likely, calls for a complete retest of the $90,000 level.
This price point holds special significance for Bitcoin USD as a psychological barrier and is expected to attract strong buying interest.
The technical setup for a 100% wick-fill scenario appears particularly compelling. Under this pattern, the price might briefly dip below $90,000, triggering a wave of buy orders that could fuel a strong upward move.
Traders are watching the 1-hour 50 exponential moving average (EMA) for confirmation of this reversal pattern.
A successful flip of this technical indicator from resistance to support would provide additional confidence in the recovery scenario.
