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The broader cryptocurrency market has been bearish since the start of the year with Bitcoin (BTC) price not being an exception.
The crypto reached an high of $108K but has since been unable to maintain the same momentum.
Analyst Ki Young Ju suggested a potential end of Bitcoin bull cycle. Here is why this could be true;
BTC Price: Realized Cap vs Market Cap
First, recent BTC price market trends indicated a potential end of the ongoing bull market period.
BTC began bull market phases in periods where Realized Cap grew but did not surpass Market Cap growth like in 2016-2018, mid-2019 to 2022 and mid-2025 to 2025.
The prices started to escalate sharply because of limited new capital injections into the system.
The market saw bearish conditions in 2015, 2019 and 2022. The growth of Realized Cap surpassed that of Market Cap suggesting high selling pressure was working against price growth.
As of press time, data indicated reddening of the chart which suggesting new capital injections while price levels stayed stagnant.
Historically, BTC price could be headed towards extensive stagnation. Investments into Bitcoin met no price increase which indicated declining market optimism and potential bearish forces at work.
However, a future price rally could occur after sell pressure diminished at a similar level to the market conditions in mid-2020.
Realized Cap stability together with Market Cap surpassing it would create bullish conditions for market momentum.
The current market data showed exhaustion rather than new enthusiasm so any market recovery seems likely to be slow.
Why Were Old BTC Moved?
Again, the movement of more than 1,057 BTC that had been idle between 7 to 10 years resulted in a spike of Bitcoin’s Spent Output Age Bands. This could signal incoming selling pressure.
The movement of dormant coins from 7–10y age bands caused this particular age group to surpass 50 threshold levels which rarely occur.
History showed that similar shifts in Bitcoin’s Spent Output Age Bands often lead to increases in market turbulence and occasionally signal the termination of extended rising markets.
The owners of these vintage Bitcoin coins typically did not move them throughout previous market cycles except when big market changes occurred or when they felt a favorable time to sell emerged.
Early adopters appeared to consider current BTC prices ($83.8K) as their maximum point of interest for selling purposes.
These extensive BTC transfers from lengthily-held accounts might be part of asset rebalancing procedures or business internal transfers instead of selling transactions.
The preparation for liquidation among holders could introduce excessive supply into the market which would reduce price momentum and indicate the bull cycle had reached its limit.
The opposing perspective regarding these coins was the non-spending activity. The previous pattern indicated that the recent spike could indicate the start of weakness in the ongoing price rally.
What Bitcoin Dominance Says?
Furthermore, BTC dominance (BTC.D) again tested the 62%–64% zone, a resistance area that had consistently triggered rejections over the past 1.5 years.
The chart showed that each touch of this ascending trendline coincided with local tops in BTC dominance, often followed by significant corrections.
From early October 2023 to present, at least six rejections occurred at or near this trendline, showing the zone’s historical reliability. BTC.D sat just below 62.4%, nudging against the same resistance band.
Simultaneously, the Stochastic RSI was deep in the overbought region, around 95–100, with a bearish crossover looming.
This pattern historically suggested weakening momentum, and past instances of similar overbought Stoch RSI crossovers aligned precisely with previous dominance peaks and subsequent downturns.
If dominance were to reject once more from the 62% zone, it could suggest rotation into altcoins or a broader market cooldown, hinting that the Bitcoin bull cycle might be losing strength.
However, a confirmed stay around 62% with sustained volume could signal renewed Bitcoin strength.
While historical patterns suggest caution, a decisive breakout might challenge the bearish thesis and extend Bitcoin’s dominance further.
