BTC’s 30DMA Address Drop Matches Past Bullish Patterns

• Weekly change in Bitcoin active addresses hit historically low levels post-$101K.
• Low address activity, combined with stable futures market volatility, often precedes upward price movements.
• Analysts focus on trading volume, on-chain transfers, and futures metrics to confirm sustained bullish momentum.

The average weekly difference in the number of active addresses on the BTC network has dropped after Bitcoin reached the $101,000 level. This decrease in activity, when adjusted for volatility in the futures market, has been identified as a bullish indicator, signaling potential positive momentum for the cryptocurrency.

Decline in Active Addresses Post-$101K

Data shows that the number of active Bitcoin addresses has hit historically low weekly change values. This drop coincides with Bitcoin crossing the $101,000 mark, indicating a shift in network activity. Analysts are interpreting this reduction as a consolidation phase, where reduced volatility creates conditions for a potential market uptrend.

According to a chart by Axel, Bitcoin’s price rose, surpassing $101K, while the 30DMA change in active addresses dropped to extremely low levels around key points. Periods of low weekly active address change coincided with sharp price recoveries, as seen in prior cycles.

Source: Axel Adler Jr(X)

Notable drops in address activity occurred before major upward price movements. Current patterns show active addresses at -3% change, indicating a potential consolidation phase after price peaks.

Futures Market and Volatility Adjustments

The observed pattern is further reinforced by adjustments in the futures market, which exhibit stabilized volatility levels. Futures markets often amplify movements in the underlying asset, and lower volatility suggests a more stable environment. This stability is seen as an environment conducive to bullish developments, reducing the risk of sharp downturns in price action.

The correlation between declining active address changes and market performance has been observed in previous Bitcoin market cycles. Reduced address activity often indicates long-term holders retaining their assets and a decline in speculative transactions. These patterns, combined with futures market stability, have historically preceded upward price movements.

Market participants are closely monitoring other indicators alongside active address changes to validate the bullish pattern. Metrics such as trading volume, on-chain transfers, and open interest in Bitcoin futures are being analyzed to assess the market’s next moves. These factors, when aligned, could provide further confirmation of sustained upward momentum.