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- CryptoQuant metrics like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL show declining liquidity and whale sell-offs, signaling a bearish inflection point.
- Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve faces 29% odds of approval in 100 days, amid skepticism and regulatory concerns.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, declared on X, that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has concluded, forecasting a bearish or sideways price trend for six to 12 months. His analysis, supported by on-chain metrics, shows Bitcoin’s price peaking near $100,000 before declining, with a sell signal triggered in early 2025. A chart titled “BTC: PnL Index Cyclical Signals” highlights green buy signals and pink sell signals since 2014, reinforcing his conclusion.
Ju cited Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of indicators like Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), smoothed by a 365-day moving average. These metrics reveal a lack of new liquidity, with whales selling Bitcoin at lower prices.
A “BTC: Growth Rate Difference” chart shows stagnation, while ETF outflows and declining Coinbase trading volumes further signal weakening momentum. Ju clarified he retains spot positions but will not short Bitcoin, despite his bearish outlook.
Responses on X varied. Analyst CryptoVizArt agreed, noting bearish trends since January 2025, while others like TheBlakeCrowes argued Bitcoin’s bull run persists due to rising global M2 money supply. Critics questioned Ju’s earlier dismissal of a 30% correction as “typical,” contrasting with his current stance.
Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Draws Mixed Reactions
President Donald Trump’s proposal for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, announced via executive order on March 6, aims to utilize seized BTC from criminal cases. However, skepticism abounds.
Polymarket data assigns only a 29% probability of the reserve launching within Trump’s first 100 days. Bitcoin’s price, now around $83,340, has struggled to regain momentum after its $100,000 peak.
European leaders expressed caution. François Villeroy de Galhau of the European Central Bank (ECB) criticized Trump’s “zero-sum” economic view, comparing it to a “Monopoly board.” He emphasized trade as a collaborative wealth-creation tool and called for a stronger euro to counter U.S. financial dominance. Despite concerns, Galhau noted Europe’s regulated banking system reduces crisis risks.
In the U.S., Representative Gerald Connolly urged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to halt the reserve, citing conflicts of interest. Conversely, crypto analyst Christopher Perkins argued digital assets could enhance financial stability by reducing settlement delays, referencing historical crises like the 1974 Herstatt Bank collapse.
Institutional interest in crypto grows. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong highlighted increased government blockchain engagement, while Deutsche Bank acknowledged Bitcoin’s potential role in global finance.
