Coinbase Premium Index Turns Positive as Bitcoin Surges to $102K   

• Coinbase Premium Index signals increasing U.S. demand as Bitcoin surpasses $102,000, reflecting strong institutional buying interest. 
• A 4,012 BTC outflow from Coinbase hints at long-term holding by institutional investors, showing confidence in Bitcoin’s future. 
• Divergence emerges as spot market bullishness contrasts with cautious derivatives market funding rates below the neutral threshold. 

The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI,) which is an essential metric of U.S. investor sentiment turned positive in 2025, with Bitcoin price above $102,000 on 7th January. This index measures the spread of the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase to the price in other markets across the world as a way of monitoring the U.S. market. 

CPI above zero means that Bitcoin is trading at a premium on Coinbase and confirms the robust demand from American investors, especially institutions. On the other hand, a negative CPI is a sign of a selling pressure or demand for stock. The case with Coinbase is that it is amongst the largest trading platforms in the United States, and thus, the trends depicted herein are likely to hold for most other trading platforms. 

Institutional Demand Tom Market Sentiment 

At 18:How Coinbase Flows Currently, A clear trend that was identified is institutions moving assets to personal wallets is evident with Coinbase recording an outflow at 04 local time of 4,012 BTC. This behavior, usually considered as a ‘HODL’ mentality, shows that investors really believe in the future of Bitcoin. Analysts suggest such movements indicate a strong belief in future price appreciation. 

Burak Kesmeci, a CryptoQuant analyst, emphasized the importance of this shift, noting its alignment with Bitcoin’s price rally. Institutional interest has played a pivotal role in shaping the market, with the CPI’s positive shift serving as an early signal of increased U.S. participation. 

Bullish Spot Market Versus Cautious Derivatives Market 

Bitcoin’s price surge beyond $102,000 aligns with growing optimism in the U.S. market. Metrics such as open interest and on-chain data further reinforce this bullish sentiment. However, broader trends in the derivatives market suggest a more restrained outlook. 

Glassnode’s report highlighted a decline in perpetual funding rates, with the weekly average at 0.009%, slightly below the neutral threshold of 0.01%. This decrease from the mid-December peak of 0.026% reflects limited speculative interest in leveraged long positions. 

Divergence in Market Behavior 

This divergence reveals two distinct trends: spot markets driven by robust U.S. investor activity and cautious positioning in derivatives markets. The positive CPI signals strong demand for Bitcoin in the U.S., while subdued funding rates indicate lower risk appetite in leveraged trades. 

As Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, these contrasting dynamics will likely shape market sentiment in the months ahead.