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With constant bearishness in the market, the question market’s outlook by Q1 2025 is becoming evident as until the writing of March 21, 2025; the cryptocurrency market capitalization is at $2.71 trillion with a decline of 12.24% in a month and 17.28% in the weekly frame.
The question becomes more crucial when it has been observed that on the 1st day of 2025, the market capitalization of the crypto market was near the mark of $3.20 trillion, and on the same day, the fear and greed index was at 49 when a neutrality in the sentiment and Bitcoin was recorded at $93,425.
To beat $4 trillion the market needs to change its gears as well, but till date the bullish momentum is just observed but the dominance is by bears because of the expiring futures and option by the end of this month.
Only an unprecedented case could help the market to reach $4 trillion, and neither could it be said that the milestone could be tested by the wider market by the end of this year.
Primary factors influencing fear and greed index
Several factors affect the fear and greed index; yet, a few primary ones are the prices of major cryptocurrencies, major decisions from nations like the United States, and also affected by the growing and declining trading volume of digital assets.
According to data from TradingView, the crypto market has enjoyed higher highs, especially from October 2024 to mid-February 2025, yet the gains from the market seem to have faded in the past few weeks, and liquidation has crossed the mark of $1 billion.
Before 2025, it was argued by a few known experts claiming that the cap would reach $4 trillion by Q1 2025 and would eye $5.20 trillion by the year; however, the arguments remained, and now the market is below $3 trillion.
When writing, the market cap was below the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days exponential moving average. It is worth noting that the yearly low of fear and greed was recorded on March 11, 2025, at 15; on the other hand ,it was highest recorded at 88 on November 21, 2024.
Bitcoin dominance grew while still below expectation
The market dominance of Bitcoin has followed a bullish path with a growth of 5.39% in the quarterly frame, 6.21% in the past 6 months, and more than 14% in 52 weeks. Data available on TradingView notes that BTC has maintained its position in the market yet Ethereum has continued to lose funds as well as TVL.
The price of Bitcoin has also shown a bearish momentum with currently trading below the mark of $85k at $83,251 it also fell below crucial EMAs of 20, 50, 100 and 200 days.
BTC is down by 12.58% in the monthly trading range and mirrored a decline of around 14% in the past three months. A sudden bullish momentum in prices of almost all cryptocurrencies was observed with BTC recording an all-time high of $109k, which has sparked the speculation of it crossing $120k by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Yet still writing the market seems to be struggling and tumbling below the green line and bulls are constantly seen pulling the sentiments as well as prices.
