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Since January 2023, the crypto market has been experiencing a bullish phase marked by a strong appreciation of Bitcoin and altcoins. This dynamic is driven by several factors, including accelerating institutional adoption, a massive influx of capital, and a generally optimistic market sentiment. Additionally, there are expectations surrounding the approval of new crypto ETFs and potential favorable regulations that strengthen investors’ confidence. However, according to CryptoQuant, this euphoria may soon reach a critical point. The analysis firm identifies several technical signals indicating that the market has entered its final phase. Among them is the significant increase in the volume of Bitcoin traded in less than a month, which reached 36% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This phenomenon, observed during previous market peaks, suggests a possible short- or medium-term correction. Yet, this warning is not universally accepted. Institutions such as Steno Research and VanEck maintain a more optimistic outlook. According to them, the bullish trend could extend until the end of 2025, driven by increasing adoption and a changing regulatory framework. VanEck even estimates that Bitcoin could reach $180,000, while Ethereum could exceed $6,000 by the end of next year. Given these diverging forecasts, a question arises: should investors expect new price surges or, on the contrary, take their profits before a potential market reversal?
CryptoQuant Indicators Suggest an Imminent Cycle End
The analysis firm CryptoQuant reports on a key indicator that could signal the exhaustion of the bullish market. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the proportion of Bitcoin traded in less than a month reached 36%, a level that in the past has often preceded market peaks. This phenomenon reflects intense activity in the short term, generally associated with redistribution phases that precede major corrections.
According to Crypto Dan, an analyst at CryptoQuant, this acceleration in trading is explained by a massive influx of new capital, along with additional investments from existing market players. In a publication from January 6, 2025, he emphasizes that these trends are typical of the final stages of a bull cycle. “With such a concentration of short-term trading volumes, it is reasonable to estimate that the market is approaching its peak,” he states.
Other technical signals reinforce this hypothesis. CryptoQuant estimates that this short-term trading ratio could increase by two to four times before a market reversal. In other words, while a last wave of increases is still conceivable, the risk of correction significantly increases. “Expectations for substantial gains in Bitcoin and altcoins remain valid, but prudent risk management is essential,” notes Crypto Dan. This conservative approach contrasts with the more optimistic forecasts of other observers, who predict a continuation of the bull run until the end of 2025.
In this context, the divergence of viewpoints sheds light on a strategic dilemma for investors. Should they take advantage of the last potential increases or prepare for a correction by securing their positions? The answer will largely depend on the evolution of capital flows and the behavior of institutional investors in the coming months.
A Bull Market That Could Extend Until Late 2025?
While CryptoQuant warns of a possible end to the bull cycle, other experts adopt a much more optimistic perspective. Many analysts believe that the current dynamics could continue throughout 2025, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum to reach new all-time highs.
Among these optimistic voices, Steno Research anticipates an exceptional year for the crypto market. According to its analysts, the convergence of several structural factors could sustain the bullish trend. Accelerating institutional adoption plays a central role in this dynamic. Additionally, regulatory advancements are expected to bring increased stability to the markets and enhance investor confidence. “2025 could very well be the most decisive year for cryptos,” they assert, as they foresee a strong appreciation of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming months.
The forecasts from asset manager VanEck support this analysis. In a note published on December 13, 2024, the firm mentions an intermediate peak in the first quarter of 2025, followed by an acceleration toward new highs. According to their projections, Bitcoin could reach $180,000, while Ethereum could exceed $6,000 before the end of the year. This scenario is largely based on a growing institutionalization of the market, accompanied by the establishment of new financial products related to cryptocurrencies.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, also share this optimism. Their data shows that investors expect a new phase of records for BTC and ETH, as well as major regulatory developments. The approval of new crypto ETFs in the United States is among the most anticipated developments. Some even anticipate the establishment of a strategic reserve of Bitcoin by the U.S. government, a decision that could mark a significant milestone in the institutional recognition of crypto.
These projections stand in stark contrast to CryptoQuant’s more conservative approach, which highlights indicators of an imminent correction. This divergence raises a fundamental question: is the crypto market truly at the end of a cycle, or are we simply witnessing a pause before a new phase of expansion? The outcome will largely depend on capital flows, the behavior of institutional investors, and upcoming regulatory decisions. While caution remains advisable in light of the technical signals, the enthusiasm of large institutions could very well delay the potential timing of a market reversal.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
