Ethereum ETFs Struggle as Profit-Taking and Low Volume Weigh on Prices

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• Ethereum drops to $1,973, down 2.26%, with trading volume falling 40% to $12.21 billion.
• A whale sold 34,125 ETH at $1,970 each, securing a 4,156% profit after buying them at $46.3 in 2017.

Ethereum’s value remains unstable as it fights to stay above $2,000. Recent market data shows persistent downward pressure, with the cryptocurrency dropping to $1,973, a 2.26% decline from earlier levels.

ETHNews analysts warn that failure to hold above $2,050 could lead to a drop toward $1,500 or even $1,095 in the coming weeks. This uncertainty stems from reduced trading activity, with daily volume falling over 40% to $12.21 billion, alongside declining futures open interest.

#Ethereum $ETH hits $2,000. Cool, but zoom out! The big picture is brewing something bigger. pic.twitter.com/vK4BW8ybFQ

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 21, 2025

A major contributor to the price decline is profit-taking by long-term investors. Blockchain analytics firm SpotonChain identified a transaction where a holder, labeled “0x086,” sold 34,125 ETH on Coinbase.

Purchased in 2017 at an average of $46.3 per token, the sale at $1,970 per ETH generated $65.66 million in profits—a 4,156% return. Such large-scale withdrawals often signal reduced market confidence, potentially accelerating price drops.

Meanwhile, Ethereum-based investment products face structural challenges. Spot Ethereum ETFs continue to see outflows, with institutional investors showing limited interest.

At the Digital Asset Summit in New York, BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick highlighted staking as a missing feature in current ETFs, limiting their appeal. Staking allows investors to earn rewards by locking assets, a core aspect of Ethereum’s design. Without this, ETFs struggle to compete with direct holdings.

Efforts to address this gap are underway. Asset manager Bitwise has proposed adding staking capabilities to its Ethereum ETF, while the New York Stock Exchange seeks regulatory approval for staking-enabled ETF trading. However, experts caution that implementation timelines remain unclear, leaving short-term market unaffected.

The divide between profit-taking and long-term holding further complicates Ethereum’s outlook. While some investors liquidate positions, others stake their holdings, reducing exchange-based supply. ETHNews analysts emphasize that sustained stability will depend on resolving ETF shortcomings and broader institutional adoption.

For now, Ethereum’s trajectory hinges on maintaining key price levels and addressing structural barriers in its investment ecosystem.

ETH Price Predictions

According to ETHNews, ETH is expected to experience a -5.44% decrease by March 24, 2025, which would bring the price down from the March 20 value of $2,010.41 to approximately $1,901.24 USD ($2,010.41 * 0.9456).

This bearish outlook aligns with their analysis, which indicates a Bearish 89% market sentiment and a Fear & Greed Index score of 32 (Fear). They also predict that ETH will not fall below $1,797.48 in March but could peak at $2,047.37 during the month, with an average trading price around $2,724.66 for the year.

Additionally, ETHNews notes that as of March 20, ETH was in the first week of a rebound after three consecutive red weeks, unable to break above the 1W MA50 (50-week moving average).

This rebound is occurring on a Lower Lows trend-line, forming a Megaphone pattern since March 2024, suggesting potential volatility. The bearish mid-term outlook on the daily chart indicates a deeper correction might be underway.

Inferred Price Analysis for March 23, 2025

Given the -5.44% predicted drop by March 24, we can estimate the price trajectory from March 20 to March 23. Assuming a linear decline over the four days (March 20 to March 24), the daily drop would be approximately 1.36% per day (-5.44% / 4). By March 23, after three days, the cumulative drop would be around 4.08% (1.36% * 3). Applying this to the March 20 price:

• $2,010.41 * (1 – 0.0408) = $1,928.39 USD

Thus, the estimated price of ETH on March 23, 2025, at 10:41 AM CDT is approximately $1,928.39 USD. However, this is a rough estimate, as crypto prices are highly volatile and influenced by real-time market events, such as the FOMC Fed meeting mentioned in the X posts, which could impact broader market sentiment.

Technical and Fundamental Factors

• Technical Analysis: The Megaphone pattern and failure to break the 1W MA50 suggest ETH is at a critical juncture. A deeper correction could push prices toward the lower end of Changelly’s March range ($1,797.48), especially if bearish momentum continues. However, the recent rebound indicates potential for a short-term recovery if buying pressure increases.
• Fundamental Factors: The Ethereum network’s fundamentals remain strong. The 2023 Goerli testnet hard fork and subsequent mainnet upgrade have made over 17.5 million ETH available for withdrawals, potentially increasing liquidity. Ethereum’s deflationary mechanism—where higher network activity leads to more ETH being burned—could support price appreciation over the long term, as noted in the CoinMarketCap result.
• Market Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index score of 32 (Fear) and a Bearish 89% sentiment suggest caution among investors. External factors like macroeconomic conditions (e.g., FOMC decisions on interest rates) could further pressure ETH’s price in the short term.

As of March 23, 2025, Ethereum’s price is likely around $1,928.39 USD, reflecting a bearish trend in line with ETHNews prediction of a -5.44% drop by March 24. The technical setup indicates a potential for further downside if ETH fails to break key resistance levels, such as the 1W MA50.

However, Ethereum’s long-term outlook remains positive due to its deflationary mechanics and strong network fundamentals.