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Ethereum (ETH) is back in the spotlight after printing four straight red monthly candles and slipping to its lowest point against Bitcoin (BTC) in five years.
Market participants remain divided on whether the token will reclaim its $10,000 ambition or revisit the $1,000 lows of the last bear cycle.
Ethereum Price Fights for Support as Whales Disappear
Ethereum’s price closed March 18.47% lower, extending its worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022. The asset now trades near $1,878 as of Apr. 2.
Merlijn The Trader flagged the current monthly support level as the same one that sparked Ethereum’s 2021 bull run. He stated,
“Hold it, and $10K is in play. Lose it… and things get ugly.”
Meanwhile, analyst Ali noted a sharp drop in whale activity. “Since Feb. 25, the number of large #Ethereum $ETH transactions has declined by 63.8%,” he posted, signaling reduced institutional and whale engagement.
Data from Token Terminal further supports this decline. Ethereum’s monthly fee revenue fell to $22 million in March — its lowest since June 2020 — reflecting dampened network demand.
ETH/BTC Breaks Down as Solana Eats Into Dominance
Ethereum’s ETH/BTC ratio dropped to 0.021 on Mar. 30, marking a five-year low. The last time this ratio fell to these levels was in May 2020, when ETH traded under $300.
VentureFounder believes ETH/BTC may be bottoming but warned of more downside before any rebound. He wrote,
“Maybe another lower low RSI and one more push downward.”
Ethereum’s dominance in decentralized finance has also slipped. According to DeFiLlama, ETH’s total value locked dropped to $50.5 billion on Apr. 1, down from $59 billion in Feb., reducing its market share from 61.64% to 52.5%.
Solana’s share, by comparison, surged from 2.84% to 7.24% in the same period, as active traders migrated toward faster, cheaper alternatives.
ETF Flows, Gas Usage, and L2 Shifts Cloud Ethereum’s Outlook
Ethereum ETFs have failed to attract new capital. March flows fell by 9.8%, dropping to $2.43 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs crossed $36 billion in net inflows.
Although high gas fees were reduced to 1.12 GWEI in March, they haven’t translated to more mainnet activity.
Bots, particularly address poisoning bots, now dominate gas usage across major contracts, pointing to reduced organic engagement.
Crypto mortgage firm Milocredit noted that Ethereum’s mainnet is losing relevance as activity shifts to layer-2s like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base.
Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered estimated Base alone has drained $50 billion in potential market cap from Ethereum by redirecting fee flows.
Annual issuance now exceeds burns by 0.5%, and staking yields have dropped below 2.5%. Competing DeFi platforms offer returns over 4.5%, making ETH less attractive as a yield-generating asset.
Historical Cycles and Macro Risk Keep Traders Guessing
Since its inception, Ethereum has printed three or more red candles five times. Each time, a short-term bottom followed.
In 2018, prices bounced 83% after seven consecutive red months. Ethereum’s Q2 performance historically remains its strongest, with an average return of 60.59%.
Crypto Patel argued that “Q2 to Q4 2025 will be life-changing for $ETH,” targeting $7,000 to $10,000 and urging accumulation between $1,900 and $1,300.
But macro risks persist. Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone tied Ethereum’s fate to risk assets like U.S. equities.
“ETH remains closely correlated with risk assets,” he warned. If stocks fall, Ethereum could revisit $1,000.
Chart analyst Mags offered a more technical take: “Ethereum has one of the worst charts of all time.”
He cited repeated rejections near $4,000 and a breakdown of long-term trendlines, suggesting a possible drop to $1,060.
Still, trader Michaël van de Poppe sees hope if ETH reclaims the $2,150 zone. He said a clean breakout could trigger a surge to $2,800, especially with a weaker U.S. dollar supporting crypto markets.
Until then, Ethereum’s next move hinges on holding its long-term support. If it breaks, the road to $1,000 may open faster than bulls expect.
