The possibility of the United States using Bitcoin as a financial reserve is uncertain right now, with prediction markets showing a drop in confidence.
Experts highlight several political and economic issues that might block this possibility, especially during Donald Trump’s administration. Some people support Bitcoin, thinking it could improve financial stability with traditional reserves like gold, but there are still big challenges ahead.
Prediction markets reveal very different views. Polymarket users now see only a 29% chance that Trump will introduce a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days, down from the 60% optimism after the election. This change shows increasing doubt about Bitcoin’s role in U.S. financial policy. Critics point out that political resistance and tough economic conditions are big obstacles.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, questions whether Bitcoin will be adopted as a reserve asset under Trump. He indicates that this might only happen if the U.S. encounters a significant threat to its economic power.
He compares today’s Bitcoin supporters to past movements for the gold standard, pointing out that the U.S. has usually avoided depending on one asset for economic safety.
Some people, like Mathew Sigel from VanEck, believe that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could help lower the U.S. national debt by 2050 and make Bitcoin an important currency in global trade, especially for countries wanting to avoid U.S. sanctions.
Kalshi predicts a 56% chance that Bitcoin will be adopted as a reserve asset by 2026. This means that while it may not happen right away, it could still be a possibility in the next few years. Supporters point out that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature helps protect against inflation and geopolitical issues.
In short, the future of Bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset is unclear, but current talks show wider trends in the global financial scene. The final choice will rely on political motivation, economic goals, and outside influences. Right now, there’s a lot of doubt, but supporters remain hopeful for a change that favors Bitcoin.
