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A new report from Fidelity Digital Assets raises an intriguing question—has Bitcoin already hit its cyclical peak, or is it primed for another major rally? According to Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright, Bitcoin’s price cycles follow distinct “acceleration phases” marked by extreme volatility and big profit opportunities. The last notable example occurred in late 2020, when BTC crossed past $20,000, igniting an explosive bull run.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent struggles—down 11.4% year-to-date and nearly 25% below its all-time high—Wainwright argues that this price action is consistent with historical post-acceleration drawdowns.
As of March 3, Bitcoin had been in its current acceleration phase for 232 days, approaching the length of previous cycles, which lasted slightly longer. If history repeats itself, BTC could still have some fuel left before the cycle shifts into a corrective phase.
“The acceleration phase of 2010-2011, 2015, and 2017 reached their tops on day 244, 261, and 280, respectively, suggesting a slightly more drawn-out phase each cycle,” Wainwright noted.
Big Players Are Still Betting on Bitcoin
Bitcoin has struggled to break above the elusive $100,000 mark since February 21, with market sentiment shifting due to economic uncertainty. The initial euphoria surrounding a potential pro-crypto Trump presidency has faded, replaced by concerns over global trade tensions and recession fears in the U.S.
Despite these headwinds, major institutional players continue to accumulate Bitcoin. On March 31, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced a massive 22,048 BTC purchase worth $1.92 billion at an average price of $86,969 per coin.
Around the same time, Bitcoin mining giant Mara Holdings revealed plans to raise up to $2 billion through stock sales, with some funds earmarked for Bitcoin acquisitions.
Japanese firm Metaplanet also joined the institutional buying spree, issuing 2 billion yen ($13.3 million) in bonds to increase its BTC holdings. Meanwhile, GameStop also announced a $1.3 billion convertible note offering, a portion of which could be allocated to Bitcoin investments.
Could $110,000 Be the Next Target?
While it remains uncertain how institutional Bitcoin accumulation will influence prices in the short term, Wainwright suggests tracking the number of days BTC sets new all-time highs over a rolling 60-day period.
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced two major surges during acceleration phases, with the first rally of this cycle occurring after the U.S. election.
“If a new all-time high is on the horizon, it will have a starting base near $110,000,” Wainwright predicted.
