Moderna Inc. (NYSE: MRNA) has revised its sales projections for 2025, lowering expectations due to sluggish demand for its Covid and RSV vaccines. The company now forecasts revenues between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, a significant drop from its earlier estimate of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion.
This adjustment comes as Moderna grapples with increased competition, facility delays, and potential declines in COVID-19 vaccination rates. In response, the biotech firm plans to implement cost-cutting measures, targeting $1 billion in savings by 2025 and an additional $500 million by 2026. The announcement has affected investor sentiment, as reflected in the company’s stock performance.
Moderna Lowers Sales Forecast in a Competitive Vaccine Market
Moderna’s decision to lower its sales forecast highlights the company’s difficulties in a competitive vaccine market. The anticipated revenue reduction is primarily due to decreased demand for its Covid and RSV vaccines. Additionally, Moderna is experiencing setbacks related to facility delays, complicating its production capabilities. The company is also contending with the possibility of reduced COVID-19 vaccination rates, which could further impact its financial outlook. Moderna is accelerating its cost-cutting strategies to address these challenges, aiming for substantial savings over the next two years.
Despite current hurdles, Moderna continues to advance its vaccine pipeline. The company’s CMV vaccine study remains in progress, although it did not meet early efficacy criteria.
Moderna is also awaiting results from its seasonal flu and norovirus vaccine studies, which are expected later this year. Regulatory decisions are on the horizon for its next-generation Covid vaccine and a combination Covid-flu shot, with outcomes anticipated by May. These developments are crucial for Moderna’s future growth and may influence its market position.
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Moderna Stock Plummets on the News
Moderna’s stock has experienced notable fluctuations following the revised sales forecast. In pre-market trading, shares fell 11%, compounding last year’s 58% decline. On Friday, the stock opened at $42.60, with a day low of $41.78 and a high of $43.69. In premarket trading today (Monday), Moderna’s stock has declined over 19% at the time of writing.
Over the past 52 weeks, Moderna’s stock has seen a low of $35.8 and a high of $170.47, reflecting significant volatility. Key metrics such as a beta of 1.69 and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 11.361 indicate the stock’s sensitivity to market movements and financial leverage.
Analysts have set a wide range of price targets for Moderna, with a high of $212.0 and a low of $31.0, while the mean target is $73.64. The median target is $60.0, suggesting varied company performance expectations.
Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.
About the author
Tim Fries is the cofounder of The Tokenist. He has a B. Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Michigan, and an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Tim served as a Senior Associate on the investment team at RW Baird’s US Private Equity division, and is also the co-founder of Protective Technologies Capital, an investment firm specializing in sensing, protection and control solutions.
