20h15 ▪
6
min read ▪ by
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a period of significant turbulence, where price fluctuations are testing investor confidence. Indeed, at the heart of this uncertain dynamic, Solana (SOL) stands out as one of the most closely monitored assets. Currently, a major reorganization has occurred within the structure of its holders, revealing a significant transfer of tokens from long-term investors to new entrants. According to on-chain data, this redistribution reflects profit-taking by historical investors, thus marking the end of a previous bullish cycle. Meanwhile, a new generation of investors shows marked optimism, betting on Solana’s potential to rebound despite a volatile context. This transition reflects divergent perspectives for the project’s future: on one hand, renewed confidence brought by newcomers; on the other, heightened caution driven by technical challenges and uncertainties to come.
Long-term investors : a transition of trust
The recent rally of Solana (SOL) has caused a notable change in the distribution of its holders. According to on-chain data provided by Glassnode, investors who held their positions for 1 to 2 years have considerably reduced their share. This dropped from 48 % in June to less than 5 % today. Such a decline is mainly explained by profit-taking, a usual practice among historical investors following a bullish phase.
This wave of liquidations constitutes a significant turning point, thereby releasing a substantial amount of tokens. Moreover, these outflows have allowed a new generation of investors to establish themselves in the market. Unlike their predecessors, these new players display a resolutely optimistic vision, as they bet on Solana’s potential to maintain its upward trajectory despite the prevailing volatility.
Meanwhile, medium-term investors, who have held their positions for 6 to 12 months, have seen their share increase to reach 27 % of the total supply. This strengthening illustrates renewed confidence in the project and signifies a strategic repositioning. Such a group of investors, often perceived as less speculative than short-term players, seems ready to accompany Solana in its future growth.
The arrival of these new holders and the rise of medium-term investors signify a profound restructuring of the SOL holder base. This transition demonstrates a shared conviction among recent players, convinced that the potential of the Solana blockchain remains intact, despite recent market adjustments. Conversely, it also underscores the weight of previous bullish cycles, where historical investors seize the opportunity to secure their gains.
Technical challenges and the risk of token unlock in 2025
Despite undeniable renewed optimism around Solana (SOL), some experts are sounding the alarm about a major medium-term obstacle. Chris Burniske, a recognized analyst and partner at PlaceHolder, highlights the scheduled unlocking of 11.2 million SOL tokens in March 2025. Such a release, which represents 2.3 % of the total supply, could trigger significant selling pressure on the market. According to Burniske, many investors are already anticipating this event, contributing to keep Solana in a phase of consolidation. This additional pressure may amplify short-term volatility if holders look to sell their tokens to avoid a price drop.
From a technical standpoint, Solana is currently at a critical level. The price is struggling to remain above the key support of $215, an essential barrier according to several observers. Crossing this resistance would constitute a strong signal to reverse the bearish trend observed in recent days. Conversely, failure to maintain this position could lead to a retreat towards lower levels, notably around $194 or even $172, in line with the 200 EMA moving average.
However, not all observers share this caution. For Ali Martinez, a renowned analyst in the crypto ecosystem, Solana could follow a much more optimistic trajectory. Martinez bases his analysis on the formation of a bullish “Cup and Handle” pattern, traditionally associated with a bullish market reversal. According to him, this technical configuration could propel the price of SOL towards $600 by the end of the year. In the longer term, he does not rule out an even more ambitious scenario, where Solana could reach up to $4000, driven by renewed interest from investors and a broader bullish dynamic.
Between caution and optimism, Solana remains at a crossroads. The success of the network will depend on its ability to absorb structural challenges, such as token unlocking, and to capitalize on technical opportunities and the growth of its ecosystem. The coming months look decisive, and investors will closely monitor market signals to gauge the strength of this dynamic.
This renewal of Solana holders represents a major milestone for the blockchain ecosystem. While new investors demonstrate increased confidence in the network’s potential, the unlocking of the 11.2 million tokens scheduled for 2025 remains a significant challenge that could impact price stability. To overcome this pressure, Solana will need to demonstrate its ability to absorb this additional supply while also considering its growth. In the longer term, the future of the project rests on its technological robustness and community support, bolstered by an expanding ecosystem and innovative projects. However, in an still volatile market, investors will need to navigate cautiously between bullish prospects and the risks of temporary corrections.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our “Read to Earn” program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
