American-based prediction platform Polymarket has seen less activity just a few weeks into 2025 despite its massive following in 2024. The prediction platform typically requires users to place crypto bets on ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answers to a presented question.
Just before the November 5 election, the platform saw a significant surge in bets based on who would win the election, suggesting that the election results were a far more exciting topic for the crypto community than the topics it’s currently presenting.
Polymarket’s trading volume slumps by $2 billion in January from November
According to Dune Analytics, prediction platform Polymarket saw $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion in trading volume in October and November, respectively.
The surge in trading volume can be attributed to the rise in bets on predicting the outcome of the November 5 US election. November’s 2024 trading volume was even more than 37,700% higher than the $6.8 million volume in November 2023, hinting at how election results were important to crypto investors.
Despite a surge in activity in November, the market has struggled to maintain the same activity level in 2025. Trading volume has dwindled in the first few weeks of 2025 to only $515 million from $1.9 billion in December.
Moreover, open interest on Polymarket slumped by 77% between November 6 and January 13.
As of January 14, the most trending markets included predictions about how many times Elon Musk would post on X this week, whether New York City would repeal its controversial congestion pricing policy by summer, or if Donald Trump would attempt to purchase Greenland.
Polymarket is still struggling with restrictions, user criticism, and market competition
As much as Polymarket saw its trading volume rise in November, its popularity did invite regulatory scrutiny. In November, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation searched Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s CEO, to determine whether the market continued to comply with the ban imposed on American markets in 2022.
Moreover, Singapore restricted access to the prediction platform this January, joining France and Taiwan.
Some of the platform’s users have even voiced concerns over some of the market’s bets, particularly those centered around LA wildfires. Some have claimed the platform was trying to profit from a national disaster, inviting criticism from concerned crypto investors.
Not to mention, the platform still has to fight off top competitor Kalshi after the firm won the court’s favor in September, allowing American users to bet on its platform.
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