- Pierre Poilievre leads Polymarket with 89% odds to become Canada’s next prime minister after Trudeau resigned.
- Trudeau resigned as Liberal Party leader after years in power and Poilievre is emerging as the top choice for voters.
- Poilievre’s crypto advocacy and policy focus has boosted his popularity as Polymarket predicts a strong chance of his victory.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party is leading Polymarket with a 89% chance of being the next prime minister. This follows the resignation announcement of Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party and Canada’s prime minister.
Polymarket Bets Favor Poilievre
Polymarket users have placed $286,168 in bets on Poilievre which gives him an 89% chance of winning the federal election. The prediction market for Canada’s next prime minister has reached $412,095 in total trading volume. The federal election is expected to occur this spring.
The market resolves in Poilievre’s favor if he becomes prime minister after the election. If he does not, it will close against him. Polymarket users also accurately predicted Trudeau’s resignation. Odds for his announcement jumped from 19% to 82% shortly before his decision.
Trudeau’s Resignation Creates Political Shift
Trudeau has led the Liberal Party since 2013 and served as the prime minister since 2015. Declining approval ratings and political challenges contributed to his resignation. His departure has left a leadership void in the Liberal Party.
Poilievre has positioned himself as the leading candidate for voters seeking alternatives to Trudeau’s government. Other potential candidates, including Chrystia Freeland and Jagmeet Singh, lag in Polymarket odds with 8% and 2%, respectively.
Poilievre’s Crypto Advocacy Gains Support
His pro-crypto stance has strengthened his appeal among blockchain and cryptocurrency supporters in Canada. He has opposed central bank digital currencies and supports expanding financial freedom. He also invested in Purpose Bitcoin, a Canadian cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund. This has enhanced his credibility in the crypto community.
Kalshi, a US-based prediction platform, shows different odds for Canada’s political future. Poilievre leads with 95%, followed by Justin at 7%. As the federal election approaches, prediction markets provide a snapshot of public sentiment in a rapidly changing political landscape.