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- Institutions scalp XRP via OTC desks amid -0.32 BTC correlation; network processes 5.2M Q2 transactions post-Hooks upgrade.
- XLM’s $0.08 breakdown risks cascading liquidations, but cold wallet holdings (23% supply) signal institutional front-running of rebound.
Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, advocates a HODL approach for XRP and XLM holders, emphasizing crypto markets follow cyclical accumulation and distribution phases. His analysis notes that capitulation during consolidation periods—like XLM’s current RSI of 42—often precedes missed parabolic rallies.
XLM, trading at $0.11, faces an 18% monthly drop but holds above a rising support trendline dating to October 2023. A breakout above $0.13 would activate a cup-and-handle pattern, targeting $0.19.
On-chain data reveals whales accumulating XLM in the 10M–100M tier, with balances up 7% since February.
If you’re feeling tempted to sell your XRP or XLM just because they haven’t hit the double-digit prices yet, take a step back.
For God’s sake understand where we are in the crypto cycle and the broader adoption phase.
I don’t know how else to say this, but patience is what…
— Vandell | Black Swan Capitalist (@vandell33) March 21, 2025
Aljarrah argues retail sentiment is skewed by FUD: “90% of gains occur in 10% of market time. Selling now bets against compound math.” His stance aligns with institutional OTC desk activity, where funds are scalping XRP’s inverse BTC correlation (-0.32 over 30 days).
XLM’s MVRV ratio sits at -12%, signaling historic undervaluation. Its weekly MACD shows bullish divergence, while Binance futures volume dropped 45%—a classic capitulation signal before reversals. Limit orders at $0.095–$0.10 act as liquidity pools for algo traders.
XRP’s futures open interest fell 22% after rejecting $0.65, yet its network processed 5.2M Q2 transactions, a yearly high. Post-Hooks upgrade, validators handle 3,400 TPS, boosting B2B payment utility.
Patience, per Aljarrah, isn’t passive: tracking support/resistance levels and adoption metrics (like XRP’s 42% BitPay transaction surge) defines alpha. XLM maximalists target its CBDC role, with 1.3M transactions processed for 2024 government pilots.
Key risk: XLM breaking $0.08 invalidates its bullish structure, triggering cascade liquidations. But institutions—holding 23% of supply in cold wallets—are front-running this scenario, per Santiment data.
In crypto, time compounds leverage. Enduring drawdowns capture parabolic rallies. XRP and XLM hinge on adoption inevitability; here, patience isn’t virtue—it’s the only alpha.
As of today, Stellar (XLM) is trading at $0.2777, with a slight 0.25% increase over the last 24 hours. Over the past week, it’s up 0.54%, though it has dropped 18.78% in the past month. Year-to-date, XLM is down 16.53%, but still maintains a solid 108.33% gain over the last year, reflecting significant long-term growth.
Technical Overview & Forecast
- Short-term (1-2 weeks): XLM is currently testing resistance around $0.28-$0.29. The market is showing neutral sentiment, and technicals suggest that if it breaks through this level, it could push toward $0.31-$0.33.
- Mid-term (1-3 months): Analysts are watching for confirmation of a falling wedge breakout. If bullish pressure builds, XLM could rally to $0.36-$0.40. However, failure to break out could send the price back down to $0.25 or even $0.22.
- Long-term (6-12 months): If macro sentiment and crypto adoption remain strong, XLM has potential to reach $0.45-$0.50, particularly if more partnerships and ecosystem growth materialize.
XLM remains a promising asset in the cross-border payments space, but traders should stay cautious in the short term due to current consolidation and market indecision.
