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Dogecoin (DOGE) price has struggled to make significant upward progress, despite high expectations for 2025. Analysts are now focusing on what is keeping the cryptocurrency from breaking key resistance levels and starting a new bull run.
According to multiple market experts, several factors are at play, which are preventing Dogecoin from achieving a major price rally.
Dogecoin Price Faces Resistance at Critical Price Levels
One of the biggest threats to Dogecoin price ability to rally further is that it seems to be stuck at key resistance levels. Crypto analysts have defined $0.18 and $0.21 as the pivotal levels for the meme coin.
If the price sustains itself above these levels, it could be used as a signal for rallying higher. However, despite multiple attempts to keep the price of Dogecoin above the levels indicated above, the coin has failed to sustain a constant price there point.
According to Trader Tardigrade, such resistance walls have the capacity to fuel a massive bull run if DOGE can penetrate and overcome them. ”If Dogecoin were to go below $0.18 and $0.21, a massive surge can be expected,” remarked the trader.
Nevertheless, as shown in the chart above, Dogecoin has not been able to record sustained price movements beyond these levels as this has raised concern among market participants.
Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Realized Price Distribution
Another key element that is preventing Dogecoin’s price surge lies in the distribution of its supply. The UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart for Dogecoin shows how the meme coin has been transacted at various price points.
The chart indicates that there is a large portion of Dogecoin’s supply concentrated at around $0.07394252. This price level has seen a significant amount of accumulation, meaning many holders are sitting at this price point.
The concentration of Dogecoin’s supply at these price levels represents strong investor interest in that area. According to the data, 20.38% of the total Dogecoin supply, or over 30 billion DOGE, was transacted at $0.07394252.
On the resistance side, the next key level is at $0.20008666, where 10.45 billion DOGE (7.04%) were last realized. This zone is close to the $0.20 psychological barrier, which often attracts trader activity.
If Dogecoin approaches this level, many holders who purchased at higher prices may look to exit at breakeven, contributing to potential selling pressure. Analysts see this as a key area to watch during any upcoming rally attempts.
Dogecoin’s Bearish Q1 Performance
Despite the optimistic outlook for the meme coin, 2025 has seen a poor start for Dogecoin. Data from Cryptorank shows that Dogecoin is on track to complete its most bearish first quarter in seven years, with a 46% drop. This performance is in stark contrast to previous years, where the cryptocurrency saw significant gains during the first quarter.
In 2024, Dogecoin made a remarkable 147% gain, but the first quarter of 2025 has been disappointing. January ended with a modest 4% gain, while February saw a more substantial decline of 38.5%.
The losses have continued into March, with Dogecoin recording a 17.5% drop. According to experts, this bearish trend could mirror 2018’s performance. Back then, Dogecoin also experienced a Q1 loss but recovered in the second half of the year. However, with Dogecoin’s current performance, analysts are not ruling out the possibility of further losses in Q2.
DOGE Historical Cycles and Market Sentiment
While analyzing the past fluctuations in the price of Dogecoin certain analysts have theorized that a rally might be on the horizon. Crypto analyst DimaPotts36 carried out a breakdown of the performance of Dogecoin in the fourth year of prior cycles in 2017 and 2021.
In both halves, Dogecoin posted significantly higher gains in the second half of the year. Although it had performed poorly in the first quarters.
In this regards, some experts have predicted that Dogecoin could follow the same pattern in 2025 as it did historically. If the same trend persists, then Dogecoin could record a significant improvement by the end of the year.
According to Potts36, Dogecoin price could be trading at $11.71 by the end of the year. This is taking into consideration the trend during such cycles.
