As Bitcoin (BTC) oscillates between $90,000 and $95,000, more than 10% below its all-time high from less than four weeks ago, a sharp divide is emerging within the cryptocurrency community.
Traders, relying on technical analysis, anticipate a potential further drop in Bitcoin’s price, while long-term investors remain optimistic about the continuation of the bull market.
This contrasting outlook was highlighted by David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, a firm offering asset management services to funds and high-net-worth individuals in the crypto industry. Wave’s clientele includes prominent figures like Charles Hoskinson, the CEO behind Cardano.
“In 14 years of owning Bitcoin, I’ve never seen a dichotomy like this,” Siemer said in an interview with CoinDesk. “The traders are worried, nervous, and hedged, either fully neutral or worse. Meanwhile, the long-term investors are incredibly bullish.”
Siemer himself remains confident in Bitcoin’s growth potential. “There’s a really good chance we’ll hit $200,000 per Bitcoin this year,” he stated. “Do I think we’ll see $1 million per coin in my lifetime? Sure. Not soon, but maybe further down the line. The smart, connected individuals I know are also extremely optimistic. The next six months could bring more developments than most people anticipate.”
According to Siemer, regulatory advancements in several countries could play a significant role in shaping the crypto landscape. Jurisdictions such as the United States, Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and some European nations are preparing to take steps favorable to the cryptocurrency sector. Wave Digital Assets, which runs educational programs for government bodies like the U.S. Internal Revenue Service and U.S. Marshals Service, has observed a surge in government interest in the industry.
“These steps will likely have positive ripple effects on the private sectors of these countries,” Siemer noted. “In places like Japan or Singapore, where people trust their governments, a regulatory green light could lead to significant growth. It’s different from the U.S., where public trust in government decisions tends to be lower.”
Moreover, the success of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has intensified global competition among financial institutions. These ETFs have compelled firms to innovate and develop new financial products, such as multi-token yield funds, to counter the liquidity captured by giants like BlackRock’s IBIT.
“The ETFs launched in America and completely disrupted Bitcoin ETPs globally,” Siemer explained. “Many of these older products had high fees, charging as much as 1.5%, and they’ve been overshadowed by the new offerings.”
Regulators are also expected to adapt, with the European Union potentially introducing a more favorable version of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).
Another emerging trend is the consideration of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. Siemer predicts that while the U.S. federal government may be hesitant, several states and other nations are likely to establish Bitcoin reserves. Wave Digital Assets is currently in discussions with seven U.S. states, including Texas, Ohio, and Wyoming, about the feasibility of creating such reserves.
“Even if the U.S. federal government doesn’t create a reserve, other countries probably will,” Siemer said. “But with nearly $19 billion worth of Bitcoin already in its possession, the federal government has a decent starting point. All it needs to do is hold onto it. That approach is far more palatable to taxpayers than buying additional Bitcoin outright.”
Despite the short-term uncertainty in Bitcoin’s price, long-term investors and institutional players are betting on significant growth fueled by regulatory progress and innovative financial products. As the crypto space evolves, the divide between cautious traders and bullish long-term stakeholders underscores the complexity of navigating this dynamic market.
