Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has published an in-depth assessment of the Bitcoin market following the recent drop in its price.
In its report titled “Where Is Bitcoin Headed After Capital Outflows?”, the firm outlines potential scenarios for the cryptocurrency as it seeks new equilibrium points amid shifting capital flows.
According to Alphractal, the capital outflow from Bitcoin suggests that market makers may be developing strategies to set new price levels for re-entry. The analysis focuses on three key scenarios:
Bull Scenarios
STH Realized Price ($86,200):
Alphractal has identified the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price as the first target. This metric has historically acted as a support level during bull markets, and its recovery would signal continued bullish momentum.
Hope/Denial Band ($80,700):
Derived from the Short and Long Term Conservative Sentiment Price Band metric, this range reflects the psychological sentiment of both short-term and long-term investors. Maintaining this level can reaffirm confidence and support an uptrend.
Bear Scenario
Potential Drop to $60K-$66K:
In a bearish outlook, Alphractal warns that Bitcoin could repeat events similar to the May 2021 market crash, which could lead to a drop to levels between $66,000 and $60,000. These zones are supported by metrics such as Active Realized Price and Real Market Average Price, which provide a blockchain-based calculation of Bitcoin’s average “ideal” value excluding the impact of newly minted coins.
*This is not investment advice.
