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President Trump has shifted away from his previous stance as the “stock market’s President.”
He is now embracing a strategy that prioritizes long-term economic restructuring over short-term market performance.
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, Trump now believes “short term pain” is his “only option” to lower inflation and successfully refinance the approximately $9.2 trillion of US debt coming due.
The shift has been costly for investors, with over $5 trillion erased from US stocks as the administration pursues its goal of lowering interest rates.
Administration’s United Front on Market Strategy
The administration has shown support for the president’s economic approach, despite the market volatility it has triggered.
On March 6th, Trump made headlines that “destroyed investor confidence.” He signaled his willingness to accept market downturns as part of his broader economic plan.
He reinforced this position on March 9th, acknowledging that the US is in a “period of transition” that will “take a little time.”
Key cabinet members have supported this sentiment. Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated on March 6th that the “stock market [is] not driving outcomes for this admin.”
Treasury Secretary Bessent more recently declared he’s “not concerned about a little volatility.”
Even close Trump ally Elon Musk appears to be aligned with this approach. Following Tesla’s seventh-largest stock drop in history on March 10th, Musk posted that the situation “will be fine long-term.”
The Kobeissi Letter notes that this strategy is a departure from Trump’s first term, when stock market performance was frequently highlighted as a measure of administration success.
Trump’s Economic Strategy Targets Multiple Pain Points
The administration’s economic plan addresses several interrelated challenges facing the US economy.
At the forefront is the massive refinancing task looming over the government in 2025, with $9.2 trillion of US debt either maturing or needing refinancing.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, “the quickest way to lower rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.”
This is because economic contraction generally leads to lower interest rates.
Another key element of Trump’s strategy focuses on reducing oil prices, which have fallen over 20% since he took office.
The Kobeissi Letter cites a Citigroup analysis suggesting that oil prices falling to $53 per barrel would lower inflation to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
A recession would likely further reduce oil demand and prices. The administration is simultaneously pursuing reduced trade deficits through a broad application of tariffs on “almost all US trade partners.”
While intended to rebalance trade relationships, these measures are also “lowering GDP growth estimates,” creating another recessionary pressure.
Government employment is another target, with plans to cut “tons of government jobs.”
The analysis points out that government positions have increased by 2 million over the past 4.5 years and have accounted for much of the recent job growth in the US.
Long-Term Gains Through Short-Term Sacrifice
The Kobeissi Letter summarizes Trump’s goals as a six-point plan: lower inflation, reduced oil prices, decreased interest rates, less deficit spending, a smaller US trade deficit, and reduced government inefficiency.
According to their analysis, “all of these can be obtained by, or are a byproduct of, economic weakness.”
This suggests the market volatility and potential recession are not unwanted side effects but rather intended catalysts for broader economic restructuring.
Early signs show partial success with this approach. The 10-year Treasury yield has already fallen approximately 50 basis points from its recent high.
The labor market strategy also shows this willingness to accept short-term disruption.
By targeting the elimination of government positions, the administration aims to reverse what it views as artificial job growth that has masked underlying economic weakness.
