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Bitcoin ($BTC) markets are currently presenting price volatility patterns. This is according to historical price patterns against present market conditions.
As per current conditions, BTC could establish its bear market low at around $45,000.
This is seen from the important market significance of the 4-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicator.
Bitcoin’s Bear Market Bottom and the 4-Year SMA
Bitcoin has fluctuated with substantial and abrupt price movements. Historical evidence shows that Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms share similar trends to its four-year SMA.
Based on the position of this indicator’s four-year simple moving average, the current bear market could reach its base at $45,000 per Bitcoin.
A visual inspection of the provided data shows that bear market bottoms have occurred at the 4-year SMA points in the past.
Based on historical data, the bear market experiences this certain price level in almost every cycle before reversing direction.
Bitcoin follows an upward price surge pattern during bull markets, eventually meeting the bear market downturn when it tracks the 4-year moving average.
Declining Cycle Multiplier and its Implications
The analysis demonstrates how the market multiplier has decreased throughout the Bitcoin cycle.
The market reaches its maximum peaks during bull cycles at higher levels than the 4-year SMA.
As Bitcoin matured through its early cycles, it achieved notable multipliers, reaching the 10x level. This is an indication of large market expansions during upward markets.
During the present market cycle, Bitcoin’s price reached a much lower top point, which equated to a 2.5x multiplier.
The current market peak during the bull cycle reached a 2.5x multiplier, whereas previous cycles produced 6x in the last cycle and 10x in earlier ones.
The decrease in multiplier value signals that Bitcoin’s market cycles will maintain their volatility, but their peak magnitude will decrease.
Data analytics suggest that the market is experiencing development through this indicator.
A decline in multiplier size indicates market stability because the price appreciation during bull cycles is decreasing.
The market absorption rate of Bitcoin declines while institutional investors become more prominent and individual investors practice steadier behavior.
The maturation of Bitcoin will lead to reduced price volatility, replacing its initial high-volatile market conditions.
History Repeating Itself?
As Bitcoin now approaches its Bottom, other analysts speculate that Bitcoin could be poised for a great comeback.
Analyst data suggests that the current Bitcoin bull market compares to 2015 to 2018.
The data displays clear signs that suggest an upcoming bullish movement as it approaches major support levels near the expected bottom.
Three substantial price uptrends display an identical pattern of market stabilization followed by price growth.
These rising trend lines are a bullish indicator because they create conditions for higher highs and lows in market patterns.
The first wave, from 2015 through 2018, resulted in Bitcoin price appreciation as it rested at a crucial support area.
According to current marketplace dynamics, Bitcoin shows signs of a market stir, which will soon result in a major price breakout. History may repeat itself thanks to a potentially remarkable, bullish move.
The identical movement patterns between these periods indicate a strong possibility that Bitcoin will launch another substantial price increase shortly.
The rising trendline shows that Bitcoin’s price may maintain its current upward movement, which is identical to past strong price surges.
Bitcoin will continue performing positively if it stays above the ascending trendline, which holds its support.
