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- XRP faces a critical breakout, with a 30% chance for bullish and 70% for bearish movement.
- If XRP closes above $3.50, a surge to $5 or higher could follow.
- Short liquidations could trigger upward momentum, pushing XRP prices higher despite ongoing uncertainty.
Ripple’s XRP is at a crucial point in its journey. With the current price of $2.13, traders face a critical moment that could determine the token’s future. Analysts have thrown out two opposing forecasts: XRP could either skyrocket by 700%, or it could drop 70%. With the ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S. shaking the market, the next move for XRP could be a game-changer. Let’s break down what could drive XRP’s rise to $3.00 and beyond, or potentially lead to a sharp decline.
#XRP – July 21, 2025 Cycle Peak
I’ve shared a complete thread in the Subscription group outlining my theory and technical analysis. So far, it seems to be on track for #XRP to reach its cycle peak by July 21, 2025. If the 110-day offset still holds, then the cycle peak could… pic.twitter.com/qTyFBmTefl
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) April 4, 2025
A Key Breakout Point for XRP
XRP has formed an ascending broadening wedge pattern, which generally signals a potential breakout. But whether this breakout will be bullish or bearish remains uncertain. For XRP to rally, a decisive move above $3.50 is needed. If this happens, expect the token to aim for the $5 mark, where resistance might slow the upward movement. If XRP can push past $5, a sharp rally toward double digits could follow. Analysts are watching this closely, as a 700% surge would be a massive win for investors.
However, the market also has a downside risk that’s hard to ignore. There is a 70% chance of a bearish breakout, which would drag XRP down to $0.65, representing a 70% loss from its current price. While this bearish scenario looks daunting, there is a glimmer of hope. XRP can still rally if certain conditions align, especially with external catalysts.
External Catalysts and Short Liquidations
XRP’s fate isn’t just in the hands of market patterns. A strong catalyst could push XRP in the right direction. For example, a spot ETF filing from BlackRock or the U.S. Treasury including XRP in its digital asset stockpile could spark massive institutional interest. This type of external support could provide the momentum needed to overcome resistance levels and drive the price higher.
In addition, XRP is showing signs of resilience. In the past 24 hours, the token has posted a small but significant 3.3% gain. More importantly, short liquidations have surged to $7.3 million—the highest level seen in over two weeks. When short sellers are forced to close their positions, buying activity increases, which can push the price up.
XRP stands at a crossroads, and its next move could be explosive. The 110-day offset remains a key point in the analysis. If XRP can maintain upward momentum, the altcoin could see rapid growth. However, the risks of a significant downturn also loom large. The next few weeks will determine if XRP can reach $3.00 and beyond, or if the market forces will force a reversal.
