XRP Price Prediction: Could Bearish Momentum Push XRP Down 68%?

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• XRP risks a 68% drop to $0.62 as weak on-chain data and bearish technicals point to deepening downward pressure.  
• Trump’s tariffs and declining user activity add to XRP’s vulnerability, with $2 support critical to avoiding further losses.

Ripple’s XRP is at a major peak as bearish technical and on-chain signals emerge, raising doubt over the token’s ability to maintain current price levels. After a brief recovery, XRP is trading just above $2.00, with several indicators suggesting that a deeper correction could follow. 

With macroeconomic uncertainty driven by geopolitical developments and weakening network fundamentals, analysts warn of a possible 68% decline to $0.62 if key support levels give way.

XRP’s recent slide comes amid a broader market downturn triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly announced “Liberation Day” tariffs. The sweeping measures introduce a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with adjusted rates for major trading partners such as China and the European Union.

The announcement caused a pullback in global risk assets, including crypto markets. Over the past 24 hours alone, XRP saw $3.94 million in liquidations, with long positions accounting for nearly 75% of the total.

Market-wide losses dragged the total crypto capitalization down 3% to $2.77 trillion, with nearly all major coins logging daily declines. XRP, which dropped 5.38% before recovering slightly, is now under pressure as investors weigh the broader implications of renewed trade friction.

Network Growth and Active Addresses Signal Weakness

While macroeconomic factors add to bearish sentiment, on-chain data shows a deeper issue tied to declining user engagement. According to Santiment, the number of new XRP addresses has fallen sharply, dropping from 514 in February to just 42 this week.

Additionally, active addresses on the network have declined over 50% since January, falling from 10,200 to 4,388. Fewer active users on the protocol may indicate diminished demand and reduced confidence among participants, a trend that often precedes further price erosion.

Technical Setup Hints at Major Breakdown

XRP’s price structure also shows signs of fragility. The daily chart shows a descending triangle pattern, a bearish formation often leading to breakdowns. If the $2.00 support level fails to hold, a drop to $0.62 becomes technically feasible, representing a 68% decline from recent highs.

Momentum indicators add to this caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 38, approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains in negative alignment. A bearish divergence between price and momentum suggests growing downward pressure.

Still, short-term recovery remains possible if bulls defend the 200-day moving average near $1.93. For any upward move to gain traction, the RSI must rebound above 50, and the MACD should print a bullish crossover. If achieved, XRP could aim for $2.50 and potentially $3.00 targets.

While XRP saw major gains in late 2024 and early 2025, current conditions indicate a shift in sentiment. With key support levels under threat, weakening on-chain fundamentals, and macro pressures mounting, bearish momentum could dominate in the near term.