XRP Price Teeters at $1.90—Crash to $1.07 or Rally to $16?

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XRP price teeters between collapse and breakout as traders watch $1.90 and $2.50 levels. Futures interest rises, but bearish patterns still loom—early April may force a move.

XRP Price Risks 55% Crash Below $1.90—Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?

XRP’s price action is at a critical juncture. A textbook head-and-shoulders formation, flagged by veteran trader Peter Brandt, threatens a 55% drawdown.

Yet bullish signals, rising futures interest, and time-based breakouts offer a contrasting outlook.

XRP head-and-shoulders pattern by Peter Brandt. Source: X.com

Brandt warned in a March 26 post on X that a break below $1.90 could trigger a sharp fall toward $1.07. He wrote,

“Below $1.9, I would not want to own it. H&S projects to $1.07. Don’t shoot the messenger.”

XRP is down 4.7% over the past seven days, underperforming peers as Bitcoin rallied to $88,800.

The altcoin’s trading volume dropped from $4 billion to $2.6 billion in a week—a 35% decline.

Futures Data Shows Renewed Investor Interest

Despite the bearish chart, futures activity paints a different picture. Analyst Ali Martinez posted on X that open interest in XRP futures surged 36% in two weeks.

Capital locked in XRP derivatives jumped from $2.12 billion to $2.89 billion, signaling rising trader engagement.

At the same time, XRP continues to hold above the $2 mark. Since reclaiming this level, it has not closed below it, suggesting buyers may be defending the threshold as a potential accumulation zone.

Breakout Window Nears as XRP Tightens Below Key Resistance

XRP continues to trade within a tightening wedge, stuck below a descending trendline from the $3.41 high.

The price now hovers around $2.36, with resistance building near $2.50—also the 50-day EMA.

XRP/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Fibonacci time levels place March 30 and April 8 as key breakout windows. These dates align with the 0.618 and 1.0 extensions, often linked to strong market moves.

If XRP clears $2.50, it could test the next resistance levels at $2.69, $2.86, and $3.10. The 1.618 extension points to $4.30 as a potential upside target.

Support around $2.31, tied to the 0.236 Fib level, has held multiple times. A breakdown below this could shift momentum lower.

The RSI sits at 48, showing weak momentum and no clear trend. A move above 50 might support bullish continuation.

Time-based indicators suggest XRP is nearing the end of its consolidation phase. A breakout—up or down—looks increasingly likely in early April.

Conflicting Signals Leave Short-term Outlook Uncertain

Another trader, Javon Marks, offered a bullish view. He noted that XRP and its relative strength index (RSI) had broken out of falling wedge patterns—historically a reversal indicator.

XRP analysis by Javon Marks | Source: X

Marks said,

“The last breakout resulted in a roughly +570% price increase…Prices can be ready for another substantial surge.”

Meanwhile, Dom, an order flow analyst, said the next two weeks could define XRP’s trajectory. He urged caution, stating the current range lacks clarity, stating,

“We need to see clear breaks of the levels I have shown.”

Macro Outlook Remains Divided, Despite SEC Battle Nearing End

Bitwise Asset Management projected XRP could reach $29.32 by 2030 if it secures a role in the payments and tokenization sectors.

The firm’s “bull case” sees the token rising to $12.70, while the “bear case” drops XRP to $0.13.

Bitwise used the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for its analysis. In October 2024, the firm filed for an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. Regulatory approval could act as a catalyst for future growth.

Ripple’s legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission appears to have ended, but XRP failed to sustain a rally on the news.

All Eyes on $1.90 and $2.50 as Traders Await Breakout Confirmation

With price action tightening and sentiment split, XRP’s next move hinges on two levels: $1.90 and $2.50.

A drop below $1.90 could confirm the bearish head-and-shoulders formation. A break above $2.50, a key support-resistance zone since Nov. 2024, may restore upward momentum.

Until then, traders appear caught between the extremes of a collapse to $1.07 or a breakout to $3.80 and beyond.



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