Bitcoin (BTC) price shows no signs of revival as it trends lower. Veteran trader Peter Brandt also acknowledges this bearish BTC outlook. Brandt hints that it is not a good look for the world’s largest crypto by market capitalization. However, the first two weeks of September will decide if Bitcoin will continue its bull run or trigger a brutal crash to $30,000.
Bitcoin $BTC
Three things to note
1. Ongoing series of lower highs, lower lows
2. Downward slope of lows shows lack of energy
3. No other post halving time in BTC history when new ATH has taken this long
Make of all this what you might pic.twitter.com/8XjRAKpcbb— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 3, 2024
Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Could Continue its Crash
Here are 5 key reasons why Bitcoin price could crash to $30,000:
- Bearish Bitcoin price structure
- Uncertain macroeconomic conditions
- US election resultsÂ
- BTC’s bearish on-chain metrics
Bearish Bitcoin price structure
Bitcoin price action is a great example of buying pressure exhaustion. As a result, BTC has set up multiple lower highs and lower lows since the March 2024 all-time high (ATH) of $73,835.Â
Clearly, the BTC’s sideways movement suggests a power struggle between buyers and sellers. If the outlook remains the same, BTC price could trigger a steep correction to the next key levels – $43,800 to $41,350, $30,450, and $27,200.Â
Uncertain macroeconomic conditions
The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike in late July, coupled with the weak Nonfarm Payrolls data, triggered a 30% correction in Bitcoin price and 10% for the S&P500 index. This outlook caused recession fears to run rampant.Â
If the jobs data on September 6, comes in lower than expectations, recession concerns and rumors are likely to come back. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 18 could be the nail in the coffin to catalyze a Great Recession-styled correction in the financial markets.
US election results
The US political outlook has swayed crypto markets. For example, when Trump was winning, and his odds of winning the 2024 presidential elections were high, markets were optimistic. As Kamala Hariss’ odds improved, the market tanked due to the uncertainty surrounding crypto regulation from the democratic nominee.
If Hariss wins the election, the markets could be in for a rude awakening and could cause BTC price to crash to $30,000.Â
BTC’s bearish on-chain metrics
The 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is an indicator that tracks the average profit of investors who purchased BTC in the past year. A high positive value indicates that investors are in profits and could forecast an impending correction and vice versa. Hence, this metric is typically good at predicting local and cycle bottoms, where investors can accumulate.
At the time of writing, the 365-day MVRV hovers around zero and has not dipped below this level since March 2023. A further correction wouldn’t be unlikely, but it would support a potential correction in BTC to $30,000.Â
On the contrary, if the Nonfarm Payrolls data is above expectations and the Fed rate cut is not viewed as a bearish event, there is a chance for the Bitcoin price to prove itself. In such a case, the bulls need to propel BTC to produce a higher high above the August 25 swing high of $65,050 and set up a higher low above the August 5 swing low of $49,050.Â
This move would invalidate the bearish outlook. Bitcoin price prediction hints that this could kickstart a bull run to $70,000 or higher.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Bitcoin price could continue its crash to $30,000 due to various bearish factors, including price structure, macroeconomic conditions, and on-chain metrics.
The five key reasons are: bearish Bitcoin price structure, uncertain macroeconomic conditions, US election results, BTC’s bearish on-chain metrics, and a potential Great Recession-styled correction.
Yes, if upcoming economic data and events surprise positively, BTC price could potentially start a bull run to $70,000 or higher, invalidating the bearish outlook.
Akash Girimath
Akash Girimath is an engineer at core, but is interested in the chaos of the financial markets. Akash is senior report and analyst who also trades cryptos on a regular basis and maintains a small crypto fund for friends and family.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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