5 things to Expect from Bitcoin Price Based on Historical Trends

Historical trends have always been used to analyze Bitcoin price and provide insights into the crypto’s future trajectory. Although these trends don’t always play out the same way, they tend to rhyme and give a pattern, indicating what to expect from the leading crypto. In line with this, there are certain things to expect from BTC heading into the fourth quarter of this year and 2025.

Bitcoin Price To Benefit From Rate Cuts

Bitcoin price is set to benefit from the rate cuts projected to begin at the next FOMC meeting, which will be held between September 17 and 18. Historically, rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have been considered bullish for BTC since this quantitative easing (QE) leads to an increase in the money supply, with investors having more capital to spend on risk assets like Bitcoin.

The Fed’s last rate cut came in March 2020, marking the beginning of a bull run for the flagship crypto, which rose to an all-time high (ATH) of around $69,000 in November 2021. When the rate cut happened, BTC was trading at around $7,000. As such, something similar could play out again, especially with its price expected to peak by year-end 2025.

Three Consecutive Green Months In Q4

Bitcoin could enjoy three consecutive green months in the last quarter of this year. Coinglass’ data shows that the flagship crypto has historically enjoyed positive monthly returns in October, November, and December in the previous two halving years. This halving event again occurred this year, meaning that the coin could finish the last three months of this year in the green.

Another reason crypto natives are confident that this historical trend could play out this way is how the crypto has performed this month. September has often been bearish for BTC, and this month has been no different. As such, this indicates that Bitcoin price still mimics past trends and could replicate its historical Q4 performance in the 2016 and 2020 halving years.

A Price Rally After The US Elections

A price rally is imminent for BTC after the US elections in November. This happened in the last two presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. Although Bitcoin wasn’t a major talking point ahead of those previous elections like it is now, the certainty that the aftermath of the election brings is constant. Market participants love certainty and will be able to deploy more capital to these risk assets after the election.

It is worth mentioning that experts like Bernstein analysts predict that Bitcoin price will rise to $90,000 if Donald Trump wins the election. However, Steven Lubka, the Head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin, argues that Bitcoin is rooted in countries’ fiscal and monetary profiles and that the leading crypto will perform positively irrespective of who wins.

Year-End 2025 Could Market Peak For Bitcoin Price

BTC’s price is expected to peak by year-end 2025 based on its halving cycle, which forms part of its four-year cycle. The crypto asset faces two years of bear and bull markets during this four-year cycle. The halving cycle usually marks the start of the bull market, which begins after the halving event. BTC enjoys notable price surges and peaks 16 to 18 months after the halving.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital’s analysis highlighted how Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving. If history were to repeat itself, the crypto asset’s price would peak in this cycle in September or October 2025.

The Mars-Vesta Cycle theory, which aligns with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, also indicates that the market peak for BTC could come in October 2025. Bitcoin price is expected to reach $100,000 by then or even higher.

Massive Price Rally Following Golden Cross

Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto revealed in an X post that a Golden Cross had appeared on Bitcoin’s chart. In past cycles, BTC enjoyed a “massive” price rally whenever this bullish signal appeared on its chart. This indicates that a price surge might be imminent, especially with the rate cuts and given its historical Q4 performance.

Despite Bitcoin having a bullish outlook based on these historical trends, the US economy’s frail state still poses a threat to any price surge BTC is set to enjoy. A short-term or long-term contraction could invalidate these historical trends and lead to a bearish outlook for Bitcoin price. As such, the macro side is still one to keep an eye on.