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Crypto analysts are noting a growing trend where Bitcoin sees increased buying activity as Donald Trumpâs odds of winning the U.S. presidential election strengthen. Bitfinex analysts highlighted this correlation in an October 21 report, suggesting that traders are using Trumpâs election prospects as a guide for Bitcoinâs price movements. The report shows that Bitcoin has rallied past $69,000 recently, a surge partly attributed to market speculation around Trumpâs potential victory.
Deribit, a popular crypto derivatives exchange, adds weight to this view with data showing significant interest in Bitcoin call contracts expiring in late November. Open Interest (OI) is heavily centered around the $80,000 price level, indicating optimism among traders for further Bitcoin gains.
Election Uncertainty Fuels Bitcoin Rally
As political uncertainty increases, risk assets like Bitcoin often respond with heightened volatility. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, now place Trumpâs victory odds at around 60%, which analysts believe has added momentum to Bitcoinâs upward trend. Analysts from Bitfinex noted that the recent spike to $69,000 could have been driven by speculators pricing in the potential for a Trump victory.
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David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, offered a broader view, suggesting that Bitcoin is well-positioned to perform regardless of the election outcome. He argues that Bitcoinâs long-term growth trajectory is not solely tied to election results but is part of a larger trend of increased institutional adoption and broader acceptance as a store of value.
Trumpâs Impact on Crypto Policy
Trumpâs public statements on crypto regulation and potential reforms to the SEC have further heightened interest in how his presidency could shape the industry. With nearly 94% of Bitcoinâs supply now in profit, traders are closely watching regulatory developments that could affect the market. Many believe that Trumpâs policy stance, especially on crypto taxation, could either boost or stifle growth in the sector.
Despite Trumpâs crypto rhetoric, his own World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token has yet to deliver on expectations. Launched on October 16, WLFI saw underwhelming results, with only $12.7 million in sales on its first day, falling short of the projected $300 million target.
