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Bitcoin bull market appears to be gaining momentum, with valuation metrics signaling further potential for price gains. Research from CryptoQuant, published on November 27, highlights that the cryptocurrency is far from reaching overvaluation levels typically observed during market peaks. Analysts are projecting a potential price target of $146,000 for this cycle.
Bitcoin Accumulation Pattern
A key factor supporting this outlook is the relatively low activity among retail investors. Historically, bull cycles have peaked when retail participation surges, accounting for over 80% to 90% of total holdings. In contrast, current retail holdings stand at just over 50%, indicating that the market has yet to reach its speculative zenith. Since October, retail investors have reduced their holdings by 41,000 BTC, while institutional and large-scale players have added 130,000 BTC to their portfolios.
“This trend suggests a shift in market dynamics, with institutional investors taking the lead in the accumulation phase,” CryptoQuant analysts noted. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been instrumental in this trend, with Bitcoin-related ETFs seeing record weekly inflows of $3.1 billion by November 22, when Bitcoin briefly touched $99,655.50.
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Price Corrections and Long-Term Projections
Although Bitcoin’s price has dipped to around $91,000 as of November 26—failing to breach the $100,000 resistance level—analysts caution that a correction of up to 30% could precede the next leg of the rally. Such pullbacks have historically marked consolidation phases in Bitcoin’s bull runs, providing the foundation for further growth.
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator has remained firmly in bullish territory since early November but has yet to reach the overheated levels last seen in March 2024, when Bitcoin surpassed $70,000. This suggests that the current rally is still in its early stages.
From a realized price valuation perspective, Bitcoin’s top price target stands around $150,000, precisely $146,000. CryptoQuant’s report states that this price band has historically acted as a peak in previous cycles, such as in April-May 2021. “The P&L Index has not yet reached overvalued levels, indicating the price still has room to grow,” the report states.
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As institutional investors continue to dominate the market, the narrative around Bitcoin’s long-term potential strengthens. With metrics pointing to untapped upside and retail activity yet to peak, the stage is set for Bitcoin to aim for new all-time highs in this cycle.
