Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is very skeptical about the potential launch of a spot ETF for Solana in the near future. Eric shared a detailed flow chart that explains the approval process. Notably, the CBOE filed 19b-4 for a Solana ETF on July 8th. The second step of the approval required the U.S. SEC to post CBOE’s 19b-4 filing for Solana ETF on the agency’s website. However, the agency refused and CBOE’s Solana ETF Filing was never posted to the SEC website.
“A Snowball’s Chance Of Approval”
Consequently, Balchunas disclosed that the agency withdrew the 19b-4 filings for Solana ETFs following the SEC’s refusal to post them. However, the S-1 filings from potential Solana ETF issuers are still active.
In an X post, he stated that there is “A snowball’s chance in hell of approval unless there’s a change in leadership.” He also shared that while there’s a near-zero chance of the SEC’s approval of a SOL ETF in 2024, there’s a near-zero chance in 2025 as well, if Kamala Harris wins.
Can Trump Change The Fate Of SOL ETF?
The only hope in Balchunas’ opinion is if Trump wins the upcoming Presidential elections. He believes that the odds for a Solana ETF approval could soar if Donald Trump eventually becomes U.S. president.
This indicates that Trump could change the leadership of several federal agencies, including the SEC. Notably, During the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, Trump had promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office, if elected. Despite Gensler’s key role in approving Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, there are speculations that he will not support the launch of spot-based funds for other cryptos.
Nate Geraci’s Comments
Nate Geraci, the President of the ETF Store had also shared similar remarks on Solana ETF recently. He stated that ‘the only viable path for spot Solana ETF approval would be the implementation of a legitimate crypto regulatory framework that clearly defines which crypto assets are securities versus commodities- of for the SEC to agree with Solana being designated as a non-security commodity’. “Solana ETF is not happening anytime soon under current administration,” he concluded.
Brazil Approves Its Second SOL ETF!
Brazil’s CVM remains the only regulator globally to approve a Solana spot ETF. The Brazilian securities regulatory body, Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), has approved its second Solana spot ETF, a few days after sanctioning the first of the product worldwide. CVM’s database stated that the new Solana spot ETF would be offered by Hashdex, a Brazilian-based $962 million asset manager, in conjunction with investment bank BTG Pactual.
