Bitcoin enthusiasts and traders have recently seen a flicker of hope despite ongoing selloffs, as hints of a resumption of the bull run emerge.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has pointed out that Bitcoin remains in the middle of a bull cycle, based on key data from a growth rate difference chart.
This chart, which tracks the relationship between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized capitalization, signals that Bitcoin is still in a phase of growth. The current trend reveals that the market cap is rising faster than the realized cap, a key indicator of a bull market.
Hey bears, I’m sorry, but #Bitcoin is still in the middle of the bull cycle. https://t.co/QkaZx7wmAt pic.twitter.com/8lkIiRn1W7
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) September 30, 2024
Historical Cycles and Growth Patterns
The growth rate difference chart highlights clear trends from Bitcoin’s past bull and bear cycles, beginning with the 2013-2015 period. In 2013, a sharp increase in market cap initiated a bull market, which was later followed by a steep correction in 2014, marking a bear market phase.
This pattern repeated between 2016 and 2018, with a new bull cycle starting in 2016, peaking at the end of 2017, and then declining throughout 2018 into bear territory. Notably, each period of market cap growth was followed by a corresponding correction, as seen with the fluctuations between the green (bull) and red (bear) zones on Young Ju’s chart.
In the 2019-2021 period, another recovery began, propelling Bitcoin into new heights in 2021. However, the subsequent decline in 2022, exacerbated by rising inflation and broader market corrections, brought Bitcoin back into a bear cycle. The growth rate difference shifted into the red zone, indicating a prolonged bear market phase.
New Bull Cycle Post 2023
Entering 2023, the chart indicates a reversal of the bearish trend as Bitcoin’s market cap begins to outpace its realized cap once again. This shift into the green zone suggests the start of another bull cycle.
Recall Young Ju’s statement in May that such growth patterns typically last around two years, suggesting that if the current trend holds, the bull market may extend into 2025.
Unusual September Performance
Interestingly, 2024 has also marked a departure from Bitcoin’s usual performance in September, a month historically associated with price drops. In contrast, Bitcoin has posted a rise of over 10% this September, defying expectations.
Market analyst Ali Martinez noted that when Bitcoin ends September with a positive candlestick, it has often paved the way for substantial gains in the following months.
For instance, Bitcoin saw significant gains in October 2015 and 2016 following strong performances in September, with increases of 33.49% and 14.71%, respectively. This year’s positive September performance could similarly signal more gains as the market continues to grow, particularly as Bitcoin remains in the middle of its current bull cycle.
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