Bitcoin’s current market trends have prompted analysts to ponder if the ongoing consolidation phase of over 200 days might indicate an imminent breakout. Given that the Bitcoin price is currently at around $62,000, some traders are reminiscing about earlier cycles where price oscillation took place before a sudden rise.
Notably, experts such as Michael van de Poppe and Peter Brandt offer their insights, looking at the current phase as historically comparable. Possible indications of market change have been identified in the analysis.
Parallels Between Bitcoin’s Current Consolidation and 2015 Breakout
According to Michael van de Poppe, the current market behavior of Bitcoin resembles the consolidation phase of the year 2015. In 2015, Bitcoin went through more than eight months of consolidation.
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It then had a big breakout, and the pattern looks similar to the current 200-day consolidation period. Additionally, Van de Poppe notes that prolonged consolidations typically precede a breakout in momentum. This may lead to significant rise once the market gets into an upward trend.
Furthermore, in Van de Poppe’s opinion, there is another technical indicator that suggests further consolidation for Bitcoin: Relative Strength Index (RSI). He points out that the RSI has been ranging between 50 and 55 during the current consolidation period.
This is suggestive of the absence of a strong bullish or bearish outlook. Besides, such neutral RSI readings have typically occurred during prolonged consolidations preceding major price swings in the course of the previous cycles.
This created speculation that Bitcoin may be about to experience a breakout particularly as it nears certain price levels.
Peter Brandt’s Long-Term Bitcoin Outlook and Post-Halving Trends
Similarly, another crypto analyst, Peter Brandt, also has the same viewpoint regarding the current status of Bitcoin. Brandt, who is famous for his trend forecasts, has focused on the impact of Bitcoin’s halving cycles that have always been followed by an increase in the price.
Moreover, he predicted that the price of Bitcoin might hit $135k by August or September 2025 after the most recent halving that took place in April 2024. Brandt also noted that the second half of the Bitcoin halving cycle has witnessed the largest price rises, which is in line with his outlook for the upcoming price surge.
Nevertheless, Brandt also shared some concerns about the near future. He pointed to the fact that if BTC price falls below $48,000, there may be some risks.
Further, he noted that this level is an important support zone. A breakout below this level may indicate a trend reversal. However, Brandt still sees potential in Bitcoin although he advises caution. Current consolidation is more like a short-term correction rather than the reversal of the trend.
Whale Activity Suggests a Shift in BTC Market
Moreover, the current whale activity in the Bitcoin market has given another perspective on the possible direction of the market. As per the data from CryptoQuant, there is a change in BTC’s realised market capitalization and whales are back in action. This shift implies that institutional investors and other big investors in Bitcoin are preparing for the next price action.
According to CryptoQuant, the number of whales has been on the rise since the middle of 2023 suggesting more capital may be coming in the market.
Some of the biggest investors are likely to purchase more Bitcoin when the volatility is low. Moreover, the increased whale activity has been interpreted by some analysts as an early indicator of a potential breakout.
