Bitcoin could skyrocket if the November U.S. election turns out to be controversial, according to Adam Guren, chief investment officer at Hunting Hill, a New York-based hedge fund that manages $226 million.
Guren believes that while the initial uncertainty will likely disrupt capital markets, including crypto, it could also slow down the American economy and prompt the Fed to cut rates further.
“If it is not known who the president will be, I am sure we will enter a recession or at least a slowdown,” Guren said, adding: “In that case, there will be more rate cuts.” Historically, rate cuts have led to higher cryptocurrency prices.
The upcoming US elections are a focal point for crypto investors, with both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris expressing support for the sector. Trump even backed an upcoming crypto project called World Liberty Financial. Regardless of the election outcome, Guren noted that investors are looking for clarity, but warned of potential market turmoil if the election results are disputed.
“There is a middle ground scenario,” Guren explained: “There would be an election, then it would be controversial. Frankly, I hope that doesn’t happen.”
Guren’s concerns reflect broader market concerns. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which tracks expected price swings in the S&P 500, has already begun to reflect post-election uncertainty. And the Nations TailDex, which measures the likelihood of significant “trigger risk” events, recently hit a monthly high, according to investment managers.
The uneasiness comes amid the Fed’s aggressive rate-cutting cycle. Market analysts have raised the odds of a 25 basis point cut at the November meeting to 88%. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former Trump communications director, predicts the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year.
Guren argues that these rate cuts could significantly boost Bitcoin prices. “Cycles of rate cuts have created positive price action in Bitcoin,” he said. “If you get to negative real interest rates at some point, then it really goes up.”
*This is not investment advice.
