Solana (SOL) is up 900% since its crash following the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in 2022.
However, according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, the price could quadruple by the end of 2025.
Kendrick’s forecast suggests that SOL, currently trading at around $140, could reach $560, bringing its total market capitalization to around $264 billion. However, achieving that target is dependent on three key factors in the coming months.
US Election Results
The upcoming 2024 general election in the United States is the first major variable. Kendrick believes Solana’s price target is more attainable if former President Donald Trump wins a second term in office.
“A Trump administration would be more supportive of the broader digital assets ecosystem than a Harris administration,” Kendrick said in a recent report. Kendrick also noted that the likelihood of a SOL ETF being approved would increase under a Trump presidency.
After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Ethereum ETFs earlier this year, speculation has been growing among investors that a spot Solana ETF could be in the pipeline. But Kendrick remains optimistic even if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, predicting that SOL could double in price in that scenario.
New Solana Technology
The second critical factor is Solana’s ability to increase throughput. Jump Crypto’s development of a new validator client, Firedancer, is at the core of this effort. This technology aims to increase Solana’s theoretical throughput from 50,000 transactions per second (TPS) to over 600,000 TPS.
Standard Chartered stressed the importance of Firedancer’s execution, saying: “Current price metrics will only be sustainable if Solana can deliver a 100-400x increase in trading volume.”
Solana currently processes around 3,200 TPS, according to data from Solana Beach. However, the development and implementation of Firedancer poses significant technical challenges, and emerging blockchains such as Sui and Aptos already offer higher transaction speeds than Solana.
Expanding User Base
Beyond infrastructure improvements, Solana also needs to grow its user base to sustain higher valuations. Standard Chartered said Solana needs to establish a dominant position in the financial space, which can be achieved through its recent partnership with Visa.
Additionally, increased adoption through decentralized applications such as social media platforms and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePINs) can support user engagement.
Kendrick pointed out that Solana’s market cap/fee ratio is a critical metric for its future valuation. Solana’s market cap is currently 250 times the fees it generates, compared to Ethereum’s 121 times, suggesting that Solana is “richly undervalued” relative to Ethereum.
According to Kendrick, this discrepancy suggests that either Solana is overvalued or Ethereum is undervalued. However, if Solana is indeed overvalued, it may reflect investors’ optimism that SOL’s value will increase significantly in the future.
*This is not investment advice.
