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Former President Donald Trump has taken a decisive lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, as the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer.
According to the latest data, Trump now holds a 55% chance of victory compared to Harrisâ 45%, marking a sharp reversal from earlier betting odds in September. This swing in predictions highlights Trumpâs growing momentum, particularly in four of six critical swing states.
Polymarketâs data shows Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania â states that could determine the outcome of the election. Arizona and Georgia, in particular, have become strongholds for the GOP candidate, with Trump securing his widest margins of predicted victory there. This shift in favorability represents a dramatic change from Harrisâ earlier lead.
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Cramerâs Prediction Sparks Debate
Despite Trumpâs rising odds on Polymarket, CNBCâs Jim Cramer voiced a different opinion. On October 11, Cramer predicted that Kamala Harris would ultimately win the election, stating, âI donât see how Donald Trump wins.â His comment sparked widespread discussion, with many referencing the âinverse Cramer effectâ â a term popular among cryptocurrency traders who believe that outcomes often turn out opposite to Cramerâs forecasts.
The inverse Cramer effect has gained notoriety in financial circles, and Cramerâs comments about the 2024 election have only fueled further debate. While his prediction ran counter to Polymarketâs trends, the impact of Cramerâs outlook on the election remains uncertain. Some have joked that his prediction could end up strengthening Trumpâs odds.
Trump Courts Crypto Voters with Public Display
Trumpâs climb in the Polymarket rankings coincides with his strategic outreach to crypto enthusiasts. In September, the former President made headlines by purchasing burgers with Bitcoin during a campaign event at a New York bar. This public gesture was part of a broader effort by Trump to connect with the crypto community, which includes his backing of World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance project.
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While the move earned Trump some praise, it also sparked controversy within the crypto industry. Journalist Nic Carter warned that Trumpâs involvement with a DeFi project could expose him to risks.
Carter expressed concerns that the project could be hacked, potentially damaging Trumpâs image. Despite these worries, other industry voices, such as Dan Tapiero, remain optimistic about cryptocurrencyâs future, predicting Bitcoin will soar to $100,000 regardless of the electionâs outcome.
