- It’s breakout time after a post-halving accumulation phase for Bitcoin, says one analyst, citing historical patterns.
- The boost from the Fed rate cuts is fading, with the top coin holding steady at around $63,000, as similar rate cuts from China’s PBoC failed to make a mark.
Halving has always been a landmark event in Bitcoin’s history, and it usually dictates the price movement over the next several months. However, this year’s halving has failed to make as big a mark, but according to one analyst, it’s time to saddle up as BTC enters its breakout phase.
Bitcoin trades at $62,800, dipping slightly in the past day for a $1.24 trillion market cap. It hit an intra-day high of $63,900 before losing the momentum, and in the past few hours, it has dipped 1.56%.
Bitcoin is stuck in a bull flag pattern, and a breakout above the upper trendline could push it above $78,000, as shown below.
According to Rekt Capital, BTC is about to embark on a massive rally to new heights. However, the popular analyst predicates this rise on a repeat of a historical pattern; the token always breaks out 157-161 days after halving. It’s worth noting, however, that it’s been 153 days since the halving.
Historically, Bitcoin has broken out from its ReAccumulation Range 154-161 days after the Halving
It is 157 days after the Halving now
History suggests it is “Breakout Time” for Bitcoin$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/Ydqlu4JKSf pic.twitter.com/CwRvUYnHW0
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 23, 2024
The analyst noted:
In 2016, Bitcoin broke out from its post-Halving ReAccumulation Range 154 days after the Halving. In 2020, Bitcoin broke out from its post-Halving ReAccumulation Range 161 days after the Halving. It’s 2024 and Bitcoin is 157 days after the Halving.
The analysis around the token’s halving have proven unreliable this year, however. BTC has recorded its worst performance post-halving in the five months since April. This dynamic has led many analysts to move away from the halving as a significant price metric. In a report this month, the head of research at Outlier Ventures, Jasper De Maere, stated:
“The halving no longer has a fundamental impact on the price of BTC and other digital assets, with the last time it had dating back to 2016. It’s time for founders and investors to move away from the notion of a four-year cycle as digital asset markets mature.”
Gold is outperforming $BTC in the halving year
We have seen this before 👀
You know what happened next
Zoom out to see it#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/BDg2sKwv8k
— Elja (@Eljaboom) September 24, 2024
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
While the halving may not have brought the tidings that BTC owners projected, the top crypto could still have a strong end to the year. For starters, the rate cuts in the US were bullish for cryptos, and today, the People’s Bank of China announced rate cuts and other economic stimulus to spur the nation’s weakening economy.
According to Jamie Coutts, the chief crypto analyst at Raoul Pal‘s investment firm Real Vision, China’s rate cuts are bullish for Bitcoin. He added:
The bottom is in for global central bank liquidity for this cycle. Sit back and watch the other CBs fall into line. In a credit-based fiat fractional reserve system, debasement is a feature, not a bug.
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